Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 23, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

CONCERN IS WITH PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE CWA.

WV PICS FROM SPACE SHOW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
VISIBLE PICS SHOW LOTS OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER KS AND MOST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...THUS MAKING IT EASIER FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION OF LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BUT MID LAPSE RATES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 5
TO 6. HOWEVER...MORNING CAPE VALUES WERE BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500
J/KG...HIGHEST OVER OUR WESTERN CWA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
BOUNDARY LYING FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
WITH A LEE TROUGH FROM EASTERN WYOMING ON THE NORTH DOWN TO NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON THE SOUTH. HEAT AND CONVERGENCE IN AND AROUND
THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE ALREADY SPARKED CONVECTION OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA. HOWEVER...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER OUR
REGION...BUT MOSTLY FOR A GOOD HEAVY SHOWER EVENT...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. BEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH OF I 70 IN
KANSAS...WHERE THE BEST HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO RESIDE.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THIS PARTICULAR STORM EVENT SHOULD ELICIT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...DUE TO A RATHER DEEP WATER LAYER OVER
OUR HEADS...I DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES. OUR KANSAS COUNTIES MAY END UP BEING
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...MOSTLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND GUSTS OUT OF A FEW OF THESE. BUT THE
BEST SHOT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
ANYWAY...GOING 80 POPS OVER ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT...THEN TAPERING
SHOWERS FROM THE WEST TOMORROW...BUT SLOWLY. FRI POPS WILL RANGE
FROM 30 PERCENT WEST...TO 50 PERCENT NORTH EAST AND SOUTH. PEELED
BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY OVER PREVIOUS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

INTO THE FUTURE...COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT
WASHES OUT NEAR OUR AREA. BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO AID
IN LIFT...LOOKS WEAK THOUGH AT BEST. WILL PUT IN A 20 POP OVER
WESTERN CWA TO TAKE CARE OF THIS CHANCE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO ADD
NORTHERN CWA IF BOUNDARY DOES NOT WASH OUT SOON ENOUGH.

BEYOND THAT...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY NICE AND DRY.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH CHANCES
GETTING BETTER AND BETTER THROUGH THE WEEK. GOING WITH MEAN ENSEMBLE
INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AND INTRODUCING CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
NEBRASKA...BUT KEEPING KANSAS DRY.

.GID...NONE.

JB

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-232200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1107 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.

THE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LIMITED.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM DOWN-BURST WIND AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

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KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-232230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WILL BE OVER COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES AND THOSE IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD BE READY TO ACTIVATE THEIR SPOTTERS.  THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL COME FROM NEAR ONE INCH HAIL AND 60
MPH DOWN-BURST WIND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.

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