Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, August 23 to 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

FCST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/RAINFALL THREAT ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA DEPICTION OF PROCESSES/LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS THIS CYCLE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS AIDING RE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP WITHIN THE AXIS FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY TO SALINA. AREA PROFILERS SHOW LLJ OF 30-40KTS NOW
VEERING SO WAA SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SE KS THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY...WILL BLANKET 50 PERCENT CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALL
AREAS. TIMING OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD
THE KEY TO MAX TEMPS TODAY. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE ETA IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEST/EAST BOUNDARY
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES/MIXING WOULD AGAIN
SUGGEST THAT TEMPS WOULD RISE QUICKLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW NOW SURGING SOUTH TOWARD
ICT. IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON MID/UPPER
90S LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL TAPER MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND/NEAR 90
ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE 95 TO 100 RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH HOTTEST CONDS TO OCCUR NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. NO
DOUBT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IF SFC HEATING DOES INDEED OCCUR AS ADVERTISED AND SPC DAY 1 HAS
OUTLINED THIS WELL.

TONIGHT...UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE ETA SOLUTION OF AN EAST/WEST LINE OF STORMS DIVING
SOUTH INTO THE 850/700MB THETAE RIDGE AND GREATEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL WORD LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS NEARER THE 700MB THETAE RIDGE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WOULD EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS TO BE A THREAT WITH ANY COMPLEX THAT FORM BUT GIVEN VERY
DRY CONDS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT AT THIS
TIME.

FRI-SAT...UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PRECIP GIVEN INSTABILITY/REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. SECOND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS COULD
COMBINE WITH ANY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE
PRECIP SATURDAY SO CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE. GOING MAX TEMPS ALSO
LOOK FINE WITH 85 TO 90 FOR CENTRAL KS AND AROUND 90 FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH COOLER TEMPS. MAY BE SOME THREAT
OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHTISH BUT WILL NOT MESS WITH THE FCST AT THIS
POINT.

FCSTID = 11
ICT   97  70  90  70 /  50  70  40  40
HUT   96  70  90  70 /  50  70  40  40
EWK   95  70  90  70 /  50  70  40  40
EQA   95  70  90  70 /  50  70  40  40
WLD   99  70  90  70 /  50  80  40  40
RSL   90  67  86  67 /  50  40  40  40
GBD   93  66  88  67 /  50  50  40  40
SLN   90  69  87  68 /  50  50  40  40
MPR   93  67  87  67 /  50  50  40  40
CFV   95  70  89  70 /  50  70  50  40
CNU   93  70  88  70 /  50  70  50  40
K88   90  70  87  70 /  50  70  50  40

.ICT...NONE.