Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 6, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
110 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

MRNG UAA ILLUSTRATES POTENTIAL OF EMERGING SWRN STATES SYS WITH 100
KT 500 MB OVR EPZ/ARND -25C IN THE BASE OF THE TROF.  125 KT AT 300
MB WERE BEELINED ON THE CNTRL PLNS.  LLVL IS IN PLACE WITH DRYLINE
ACRS WRN KS AND FALLING PRES OVR ERN CO.  ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE HT FALLS WITH THE KICKER MOVG ASHORE THIS MRNG...
WITH 200 M DROP AT 300MB ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.

88-D SHOWING SOME FAST MOVING...AND RAPIDLY DVLPG STORMS THREATENING
THE KS CWA.  NEAR WARM FRONT WHICH LIFTED INTO N CNTL KS EARLY THIS
AFTN.  POTENTIAL FOR SVR ALONG AND JUST N OF THE FRONT RMNS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES...UNDR INCRSG SPPRT ALOFT. DRY LINE ON
THE HIGH PLNS WL ALSO BE A FOCUS AREA WITH THREAT OF STORM FIRING...
MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD AND XG THE HIGH HELICITY AREA OF THE WARM FRONT.
TORNADO THREAT WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE
BY/SHRTLY AFTR MIDNGT AS MID LVL LOW MOVS NE OF THE AREA.

SAT...WINDY CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE FM THE S IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...
AND WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE...NR 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA IS REASONABLE.  PATTERN OF W COAST TROF/SWLY FLOW OVR THE
PLNS WL CONT IN THE LATTER PDS AND EFP.  META PROGS THE SFC BNDRY
INTO THE NRN CWA ON SUN...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT
OVR THE CWA.  WL PERSIST WITH LOW 70S S...AND ADJUST DOWNWARD TO LWR
60S N.

IN THE EFP...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS SYS XS THE GREAT BASIN AND EMERGES
ON THE PLNS AT MID WEEK.  00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT SLOWER THAN MRF...BUT
WL NOT CHANGE TIMING AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME.

.GID...NONE.

09

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-062100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1145 AM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

POWERFUL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SPREADING NORTH AS WELL.

AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AS THE MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES...WILL BE IN LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PEAK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BE
PREPARED FOR PROMPT ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THIS VOLATILE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

MORITZ