Hail in Kansas, April 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2001

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL THE WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTHWARD.

GENERALLY PREFER THE ETA FORECAST AS IT APPEARS TO BEST HANDLE THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT.

WOULD EXPECT TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH WARM FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND MOIST FLOW OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY
INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE INSTABILITY
SO MAINLY EXPECT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.  CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 60S...PRETTY MUCH IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

OVERRUNNING BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT...AS 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  WILL MENTION THUNDER
OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.

WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
NOT LIKELY MAKE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER TO AROUND 80 IN EMPORIA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK.  WILL CONTINUE CURRENT CHANCE POPS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS ALL AGREE THURSDAY TO BE WINDY AND WARM AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.  A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST TO
EJECT OUT ON FRIDAY...WITH QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

.TOP...NONE.

58