Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...AMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2001

SYNOPSIS:
EARLY THIS AFTN STNRY FRONT DRAPED W-E FM SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER NE
CO TO ALONG KS/NEBRASKA BORDER THEN NE ACRS SE NEBRASKA. ERN SEGMENT
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS N/NE AS WARM FRONT THIS AFTN & EVENING AS
SFC LOW MOVES E THEN NE ACRS CNTRL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WITH 850MB
LOW BEHAVING IN SIMILAR FASHION, NRN SEGMENT OF SFC-850MB DRY LINE
(FM KS BORDER INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA) SURGES E INTO IA LATE TNGT/EARLY
SAT MRNG. GREATEST CHC FOR SVR TSRA TO OCCUR NE OF CWA WHERE DOWN-
STAIRS CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS LWR-LVL SPEED & DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MOST
PRONOUNCED. GENERIC CHC POPS LIMITED TO ERN 1/2 CNTRL KS DUE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO EWD THRUST OF DRY LINE & CONVERGENT AXIS WITH EVENING
EMPHASIZED. PER LATEST DOPPLER TRENDS HAVE INSERTED 20% POPS THIS
EVENING SC & SE KS.

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-SCORING BALLGAME SUN EVENING AS UPPER LOW CROSS-
ING SRN CA SAT EVENING LIFTS NE ACRS SRN ROCKIES SUN MRNG & AFTN TO
INDUCE INCREASED UPSTAIRS DIVERGENCE OVER CNTRL KS-NEBRASKA. AMPLE
MSTR FOR CREATURE TO PLAY WITH & WITH DRY LINE VENTURING TOWARD
CNTRL KS WL INTRO CHC POPS CNTRL & SC LATE SUN AFTN WITH POP THROT-
TLE DEPRESSED HARDER SUN NGT.

TNGT:
STRONG MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WARRANTS FOLLOWING WARMER MAV SOLUTION
ACRS SE KS (MID 60S). "COLD" FRONT VENTURES ACRS MOST OF CNTRL KS
BUT WESTERLY COMP WARRANTS BIAS TOWARD WARMER FAN SOLUTION (LWR 50S)
WITH ARND 60F FITTING BILL SC.

SAT:
WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SE INTO CNTRL KS,
MAXES WL BE TRICKY (ESPECIALLY ACRS CNTRL KS). WL RUN MAXES FM LWR
70S NW TO LWR 80S SE. COMBINATION OF FRONT'S PRESENCE, AMPLE MSTR,
& AFTN HEATING WARRANT GENERIC 30% POPS ALL AREAS.

SAT NGT:
WITH FRONT STALLING IN SW-NE MANNER ACRS CNTRL KS, 30-40% POPS WARR-
ANTED ALL AREAS WITH CNTRL KS ON HIGHER END OF THRESHOLD. THIS FRONT
WILL CONT THROWING KNUCKLERS AT TEMPS (ESPECIALLY ACRS CNTRL KS). AM
BIASING TOWARD MUCH COOLER FWC SOLUTION ACRS NW SECTOR (UPR 40S) WITH
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE GETTING THE CALL SC & SE (LWR 60S).

SUN-SUN NGT:
BEHAVIOR OF UPSTAIRS LOW CROSSING SRN ROCKIES TO MONITORED CLOSLEY AS
THIS TO PLAY VITAL ROLE ON SVR POTENTIAL LATE SUN AFTN THRU SUN NGT.
UPON FURTHER REVIEW & COORD WITH TOP & SGF HAVE CHANGED GAME PLANS ON
POPS & WL GO WITH 60% POPS ACRS THE BOARD SUN NGT.
ES

COORD: TOP, SGF.

FCSTID = 4
ICT   62  79  60  76 /  20  30  30  30
HUT   58  78  60  75 /  20  30  30  30
EWK   60  78  60  75 /  20  30  30  30
EQA   61  80  60  76 /  20  30  30  30
WLD   63  80  60  77 /  20  30  30  30
RSL   50  71  47  66 /   0  30  40  30
GBD   53  72  50  66 /   0  30  40  30
SLN   55  75  59  73 /  30  30  40  30
MPR   57  76  59  73 /  30  30  40  30
CFV   67  84  61  77 /  20  30  30  30
CNU   66  82  60  76 /  20  30  30  30
K88   65  81  60  75 /  20  30  30  30

.ICT...NONE.