Hail in Iowa, June 30, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
206 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2001

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FRONT IS BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPES AROUND 4000
J/KG OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING
TWO AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MINNESOTA AND OVER
THE DAKOTAS.

ETA AND AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS
EVENING CLEARING THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH UP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
HELP KICK IT FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE REGION. THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS BEING COMPLETELY THERMALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED...
SCATTERED OR SMALL POPS IN THE ZONE GROUPINGS WHERE ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
SHARE OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND THIS IS ALREADY NOTED IN ALL
THE ZONE GROUPINGS. WITH THE DRY AIR...EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON CLOUD COVER.

BOTH THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE THE HIGH WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE RETURN
FLOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION. ETA IS FARTHER NORTH DEVELOPING
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA WHILE AVN IS FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI. IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPING
FRONT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND IS BEST DEPICTED AT 700 MB. MODELS DO BREAK OUT SOME QPF IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE
POPS OVER ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LSE...NONE.

IRELAND

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-010300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1155 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2001

HAZARD - SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

TIMING - 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

LOCATION - PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION - A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM THE MINNESOTA IOWA BORDER...TOWARD THE WISCONSIN DELLS.

SPOTTER INFOR7MATION - SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THOMPSON