Hail in Indiana, May 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
251 PM EST THU MAY 24 2001

FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
CLOSED 5H LOW AND CONSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND 5H LOW AND
CROSSING IL AND IN STATE LINE.  88D IMAGERY INDICATED LINE OF SHRA...
EMBEDDED TSRA...WITH THIS FEATURE.  SHRA WERE WIDELY SCT OVR RMNDR OF
CWFA.  AT THE SFC...A TROF OF LOW PRES EXTD FM KLOT TO KSDF TO
KBNA.  MSAS DATA INDICATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY
AXIS JUST EAST OF SFC TROF.

MODELS DID NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE WITH SFC TROF...ALL TRYING TO ROTATE
IT E NE TOO QUICKLY.  TREND SHOULD STILL BE FOR DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AND TROF PIVOT OUT OF
CWFA.  BEYOND F24...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 5H LOW CENTER
POSITION...WITH NGM A BIT FARTHER W THAN ETA AND AVN.  WITH REGARD
TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND LOW...HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES
EXIST.  AVN HAS EXHIBITED BETTER CONTINUITY OF THE THREE...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WL OPT FOR COMPROMISE BTWN ETA AND AVN.  THAT
SAID...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFT ON FRI AS
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS DUE TO COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...MINUS 26C AT 5H.  WL NEED TO KEEP A CHC IN FOR FRI NIGHT PD
DUE TO LINGERING ACTIVITY.  TSRA STILL A GOOD BET ON SAT AS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PROGGED ACRS RGN.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAV LOWS HAVE
BEEN A BIT COOL OF LATE SO WL LEAN TOWARD FWC NUMBERS NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS.  FOR HIGH TEMPS...T1 TEMP SCHEMES AND COOL 85H TEMPS
FAVOR A COMPROMISE BTWN WARMER FWC AND COOLER MAV NUMBERS.

REGARDING EXTD...WL CONT WITH CHC POPS FOR SUN. WL OPT
FOR DRY FCST RMNDR OF EXTD AS 5H LOW SLIDES EWRD AND ENERGY FROM NRN
PLAINS SYS WL STAY TO N OF RGN.

.IWX...NONE.

BARJENBRUCH

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-242000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1202 PM EST THU MAY 24 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DUE TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ADDITIONALLY...COLD
AIR FUNNELS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.  COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE USUALLY
HARMLESS AND VERY RARELY TOUCH THE GROUND.  HOWEVER...COLD AIR
FUNNELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BRIEFLY TOUCH DOWN AS SMALL...WEAK
TORNADOES.

THERE IS A CHANCE SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR A LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.