Flood in Indiana, June 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
156 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE IL/IN BORDER. FROM THE LOW A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF FROPA...POPS...
AND AMOUNT OF QPF.

REMNANTS OF TS ALLISON (UPPER LOW) AND WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
KEEPING FRONT TO THE NORTH AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
36 HOURS. AT THAT TIME THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH AVN RECOGNIZES THE UPPER LOW...IT APPEARS TO IGNORE THE
EFFECTS OF IT BECAUSE IT STILL BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH EARLIER
THAN THE ETA. NGM SOLUTION SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BUT BASED ON CURRENT
FRONTAL POSITION AND PERSISTENCE WILL FOLLOW THE ETA SOLUTION MORE
CLOSELY. UNTIL SUCH TIME AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...WE WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM..JUICY...AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS EXCEPT FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AN OCCASIONAL
CHUNK OF ENERGY BEING LIFTED NORTH BY THE REMNANTS OF TS ALLISON.
AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP CHC POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND END PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY. EARLY FRIDAY
THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SFC LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH WILL CARRY THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION KEEPING US DRY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BUT TO LACK OF MOISTURE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT COLD
FROPA.

FWC CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM OTHER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SO WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY. WILL HEDGE TO THE WARM SIDE OF AVN GUIDANCE PAST THE FWC
FORECAST PERIODS.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-061900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. THE AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO MURRAY KENTUCKY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POISED NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CROSS THE AREA PROVIDING LIFT. ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY WOULD BE INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD THE
ONGOING CONVECTION PRODUCE ANY.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
REMOTE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAP