Hail in Illinois, August 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...THEN A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  LATEST KPAH
RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY AND ALSO IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WEST OF KCGI.

AVN/ETA BOTH SHOW MINOR QPF OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT.
WITH FRONT STILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF TRENDS
FROM LAST NIGHT...WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED WORDING FOR THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND OPT TO KEEP A LOW POP IN THE SAME
AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  LOOKING AT AVN/ETA...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS
DIFFER...TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE SIMILAR.  CURRENT PACKAGE HAS
CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.  AVN CONTINUES
TO MOVE PRECIP OUT OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA BY AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY 00Z SUNDAY.  WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO THE COUNTY BREAK UP...AND ALSO MAKE TIMING CHANGES ON
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE GOING PACKAGE TRENDS LOOK GOOD.  DRY AND
MILD PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FWC/MAV GUIDANCE REMAIN ALMOST IDENTICAL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.
FMR GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE.

.PAH...NONE.

RSU

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-291900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS VALID
UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO
HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA
YESTERDAY...EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO
JUST NORTH OF HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING.  THE BOUNDARY
MAY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS OR WESTERN
KENTUCKY...WHERE THE BOUNDARY MAY DISSIPATE.  A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP GENERATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM.

THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION FORECAST.  BUT WITH A
RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
SOME SMALL HAIL.  A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-291900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS VALID
UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF A
PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE.

THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA
YESTERDAY...EXTENDED FROM NEAR PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO JUST SOUTH OF
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY AT 3 PM.  A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED VERY LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  WITH NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS EXPECTED...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BUT WITH A RATHER
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SOME
SMALL HAIL.  A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-1
07>112-114-292130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS VALID
UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF A
PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE.

THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA
YESTERDAY...EXTENDED FROM NEAR PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO JUST SOUTH OF
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY AT 3 PM.  A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED VERY LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  WITH NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS EXPECTED...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BUT WITH A RATHER
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SOME
SMALL HAIL.  A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.