High Surf in Hawaii, March 21 to 24, 2001

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST WED MAR 21 2001

...NO CHANGE FROM 9AM UPDATE...

SUMMARY...THE COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL FORM AND
DISSIPATE IN PLACE MAKING CLEAR SKIES TURN RAPIDLY CLOUDY AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND RAIN PRACTICALLY NONEXISTENT.

DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE DATELINE AND STRADDLED TO THE
EAST AND WEST BY MID-LATITUDE LOWS WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE NORMAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ISLANDS WILL SIT JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE WITH THE EASTERNMOST LOW TO OUR NORTHAND COOL DRY AIR WILL
FLOWING DOWN OVER US FROM THE NORTH.

MODELS SHOW THE BLOCK BREAKING DOWN THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER AS PART OF
THE WESTERNMOST LOW PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. WITH THE DAM
BROKEN...THE SYSTEMS WILL MARCH OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THAT
WILL SPELL THE END OF THE COOL DRY WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
HUMIDITY AND SHOWERS.

THE IDEAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS CLEAR OCCASIONALLY
CLOUDY. THIS IS BECAUSE RATHER THAN WATCHING CLOUDS MOVE BY IN THE
TRADES WE WILL BE DEALING WITH CLOUDS THAT FORM AND DISSIPATE IN
PLACE AT THE WHIM OF LIGHT BREEZES...DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
LAND...AND THE PASSAGE OF GRAVITY WAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SURF...THE LOW NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 38N IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE A
SWELL WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY AND BUILD INTO FRIDAY. SEE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FZHW70 PHFO/MWSHI FOR FURTHER DETAILS. IN ADDITION TO
HIGH SURF ALONG ALL NORTH FACING SHRORES...NORTH FACING HARBORS COULD
SEE HEAVY SURGE. FARRELL

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......NONE
.         ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF FOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
.                      SHORES