Flood in Hawaii, February 10, 2001

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
8 AM HST SAT FEB 10 2001

...CORRECTION FOR TIME OF ISSUANCE OF HIGH SURF ADVISORY...

SUMMARY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI...AND PERHAPS OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL ISLANDS IN THE 10
TO 25 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER MAUI EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
STATE WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG ITS EAST SIDE. THE
TROUGH HAS APPARTANTLY BROKEN INTO SEPERATE CONVECTIVE CENTERS...
WITH SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS APPEARING A BIT CHAOTIC AT
DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AT DIFFERENT LEVELS. THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF
THESE APPEAR TO BE AT 19N 167W AND 14N 161W. THE ONE TO THE SOUTH OF
KAUAI HAS A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE AREA TO ITS EAST...WITH THE CELLS
MOVING NORTHWARD BUT WEAKENING NORTH OF THE CENTER NEAR 18N. THE ONE
TO THE WEST HAS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR IT AND
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN PIVOT POINT FOR ALL THE ACTIVITY NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THREATENING THE ISLANDS...JUST A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE EAST SOUTHEAST PREVAILING WIND FLOW...WITH SOME OF THESE
BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. THE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW GETS BROKEN UP BY THE ISLANDS
THEMSELVES...AND SO WINDS ON LAND ARE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE.

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......FLASH FLOOD KAUAI TIL 4 PM HST
.                      FLASH FLOOD OAHU CANCELLED AT 8 AM HST
.         ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAUI EASTWARD
.                      HIGH SURF\ ADVISORY EAST SHORES AT 830 AM HST