High Surf in Hawaii, April 3 to 4, 2001

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST TUE APR 3 2001

SUMMARY...STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES SHOULD LAST TWO TO THREE DAYS WITH
LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. BY THURSDAY THE
TRADES WILL DIMINISH...WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE KAUAI
END OF CHAIN.

DISCUSSION...THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 1100 MILES OR SO NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...BUT AN UPPER LOW LURKS NEARBY. THIS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT LIHUE AND HILO ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND
LESS MOIST THAN 12 AND 24 HOURS EARLIER. THE TRADE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED AS THE LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST EDGED CLOSER TO THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BLOWING IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

THE EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW FORMING CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS NEAR
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE MRF/AVN AND NOGAPS PLACE
IT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THERE NEAR 30N AT THE SAME TIME. THERE IS
THEREFORE A GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. A BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP WITH A 1040MB HIGH AT 45N AND THE CUTOFF LOW AT 30N
ALONG 165W JUST NW OF HAWAII. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE CLOSE TO THE
ISLANDS...WHERE 30 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS LIE ADJACENT TO 10 KT SOUTH
WINDS. POWELL

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......NONE
.         ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NW SHORES ALL ISLANDS