High Wind in Georgia, April 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2001

OVERVIEW: LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR SVR LOOKS TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO ATMOSPHERE BEING WORKED OVER.
LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH. UPPER PATTERN STILL LOOKS VERY ACTIVE
ACROSS US NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS. HOWEVER...PATTERN FROM LATE FEB AND MAR
HAS UNDERGONE AN OSCILLATION PATTERN CHANGE...MOST LIKELY RELATED TO
SPRING TRANSITION AND REDUCTION OF INFLUENCE OF 30/60 DAY
OSCILLATION. PATTERN WILL BUCKLE AND TREND TOWARD A HEMISPHERIC 5
WAVE PATTERN NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS. THIS USUALLY SPELLS ACTIVE PATTERNS
IN US. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND DEVELOPING SE RIDGE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL GRADUAL DIMINISH NEXT TWO DAYS AS PATTERN
GAINS AMPLITUDE...AND STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO WEST. BIG SPRING STORM
WITH SEVERE WEATHER WILL CRANK UP ACROSS CENTRAL US FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF CWA SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS
AND RIDGE HANGS TOUGH. HOWEVER...AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
US...MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER RIDGE TOP AND
BRING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS NEXT MONDAY AND THEN WE GET A
MODIFIED WEDGE TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CWA
TNGT. SHWRS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
AND TRACK FROM AL INTO GA. BEST THREAT WILL BE ATL/AHN AND SOUTH
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS BEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY
PUSHES SOUTH. 950-850 JET...THETA-E ADV...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL
DECAY RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO WED SO THREAT FOR RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE. FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS MAINLY
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WED/ WED N BUT WILL CLIP SOUTH HALF WITH SOME
SHWRS AND A FEW STORMS. ETA/NGM/AVN ARE SIMILAR TNGT AND WED...BUT
AVN LOOKS OVERDONE WED N AND THU AS UKMET AND CANADIAN LOOK MORE
LIKE NGM/ETA. WILL THROW OUT AVN THU AND GO WITH NO POPS EXCEPT 20
POP FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE REALLY TRICKY NEXT TWO DAYS AS WEAK
WEDGE PUSHES IN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GOING E AND NE. WILL GO WELL BLO
GUIDANCE WED WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SCT RAIN. 850 TECHNIQUE AND T1
TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A
FEW BREAKS THU...WILL GO ABT SAME AS WED HIGHS OR A FEW DEGREES ABV
WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN...BUT MAINLY CLOUDY NEXT 2 DAYS.

EXTENDED: FLOW SHOULD TURN SE TO S FRI SO WILL GO WITH SOME BREAKS
AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S. LOOKS LIKE PC ON THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP NORTH ON SUN AND SYSTEM GRAZES THAT AREA. WILL
UNDERCUT MRF GUIDANCE AND KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS 55
TO 60. A FEW 80S POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF ATL/AHN LINE. UKMET TEMPS
LOOK WAY TOO COOL WITH ONLY 60S INTO SAT AT ATL! 70S ARE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS. ALSO...FEEL SO MUCH SOIL MOISTURE IN TOP
SOIL NOW...THAT EVAPOTRANPIRATION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK AND MRF
DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.  MAY EVEN BECOME A BIT HUMID ON
THE WEEKEND DUE TO THIS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RELEASE. LOOKS LIKE MORE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE
APRIL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS US INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

FCSTID = 14
ATL   57  65  54  66 /  60  30  20  10
AHN   55  65  51  67 /  50  20  20  10
GVL   55  64  52  64 /  50  20  20  10
RMG   54  68  54  68 /  40  20  20  10
CSG   59  70  57  73 /  70  50  50  20
MCN   59  70  55  70 /  70  50  50  20

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

NOEL

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040315-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
GEORGIA TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR A COLUMBUS...MACON...SAVANNAH
LINE WILL SINK VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
WHILE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MIDDLE GEORGIA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO CORDELE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND THUS TEND TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO
MIDDLE GEORGIA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AIR ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY THE RAIN COOLED AIR TODAY AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. CAPES THIS EVENING RANGE
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR COLUMBUS TO NEAR 100 J/KG AT MACON. THIS
AREA WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MORE STABLE AIR
FILTERS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTER GROUPS IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAREFULLY AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.

RAB