Hail in Florida, September 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2001

12Z ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY
WESTWARD TO JUST LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME
BOTH...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE A WEAK LOW
TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA WATERS WITH A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MEX. GREAT DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW/TROUGH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF GEORGIA/N-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OVER
THE GULF JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BRIEFLY RETREATS EAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE(NEARLY CALM) OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR
AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO FORCE ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT.

12Z SOUNDING INDICATES WETTER CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA THAN
YESTERDAY WITH A PW=2.09 ALSO K=34. IT ALSO INDICATES VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WHEN MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SO WILL EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
METRO AREAS AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SURE BET...AS THESE STORMS WILL
EITHER REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY. SO WILL
EXPECT LOCALIZED FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

.MIA...NONE.

GARCIA

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-062000-

SOUTH FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE METROPOLITAN AREAS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST.

THE HAZARDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY.

IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS.

GARCIA

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-062000-

SOUTH FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE METROPOLITAN AREAS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST.

THE HAZARDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS
TIME.

GARCIA