Damaging Wind in Florida, September 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2001

LOCAL RADARS ARE QUITE ACTIVE SHOWING STORMS SPREADING INLAND FROM
THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR INLAND GA ZONES IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF VORTICITY AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL PWS ARE ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT STRONG STORMS.THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...GUIDING STORMS TO THE COAST. A WEAK ECSB WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND ASSIST MORE FLARE-UPS WHEN CURRENT ACTIVITY
COLLIDES. SCATTERED POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE EAST COAST HAVING
HIGHEST POPS.

MESOETA INDICATES MORE VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS SE GEORGIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ALL MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS EXCEPT 50% FOR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...THEN SCATTERED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TX TO TN BY MONDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT THEN
LIFTS NE AND WASHES OUT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MON AND 20-30% MON NIGHT.

EXTENDED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THIS PKG.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. SW TO W FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRELIM
AMG 72/89/72/89 4645
SSI 74/88/74/87 4645
JAX 72/91/73/90 4646
GNV 71/90/72/90 3535 28

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

TRABERT/ZIBURA

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011900-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD GEORGIA TODAY...AND INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS...MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.  THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE
COASTAL AREAS BY EVENING.

STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.  THE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ZIBURA

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011900-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD GEORGIA TODAY...AND INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS...MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.  THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE
COASTAL AREAS BY EVENING.

STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.  THE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ZIBURA