Wildfire in Florida, May 24, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
318 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2001

SYNOPTICALLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER SOUTH THEN NORTH AGAIN AS AN
OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH
TO ABOUT A PALM BEACH TO NAPLES LINE TODAY AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE NGM HAD SOME PROBLEMS INITIALIZING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST...THE AVN INITIALIZED TOO DRY FOR US.  THE ETA HAS BEEN
DOING SO WELL AS OF LATE THAT IT WILL AGAIN BE MY MODEL OF CHOICE.
BECAUSE OF THE AVNS PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVER
AGGRESSIVENESS WITH THE FRONT MY NUMBERS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO FWC
GUIDANCE THAN THE MAV.  I WILL ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE FROM
THE FWC BECAUSE THE NGM IS WETTER THAN THE ETA.

THE NOGAPS DID A FLIP FLOP...YESTERDAY IT WAS THE WETTEST MODEL
TODAY THE DRIEST...THE UKMET SEEMS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ETA ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOWER.  ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS I WILL BROADBRUSH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A VERY IMPRESSIVE FIRE IS UP IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY AND ANOTHER SMALLER
FIRE IS IN NORTHEAST POLK.  ITS LIKELY THAT MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
SMOKE PROBLEMS THIS MORNING.  AFTER DISCUSSING WITH TALLAHASSEE I
WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER WISE...THE AIR IS VERY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE
QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE DRY AIR DRIFT.   THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WILL INDICATE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR FIVE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FOR PINELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

TPA BE 090/071 086/071 089 0132
FMY ET 088/073 085/072 087 3353

.TBW...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEVY CITRUS SUMTER HERNANDO AND PASCO
       COUNTIES.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PINELLAS HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK.

SOBIEN

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-241600-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2001

...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
   TODAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
   MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING WILDFIRE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LAFAYETTE COUNTY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA AREA. MOTORISTS PLANNING TO TRAVEL TONIGHT
SHOULD BE ALERT...SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE CAUTIOUSLY THROUGH ANY SMOKE
AREAS. USE OF LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS IS RECOMMENDED IN AREAS OF DENSE
SMOKE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING DOWN THE STATE. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY OF A ST PETE TO FROSTPROOF LINE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FIRST IN THE FT MYERS AREA BUT WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS BUT AS ALWAYS GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SOBIEN