Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, March 31, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EST SAT MAR 31 2001

SEVERE WEATHER ANALYSIS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING ENE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND TRAILING VORTICITY
EXTENDING SW FROM VORT CENTER. AT THE SAME TIME...IR/VIS SAT IMAGERY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE A BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR BEHIND IT...AND CREATING LOW
CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. YET ANOTHER SFC
BOUNDARY HAS RETURNED NORTH FROM S FL AND IS LOCATED OVER OUR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. 12Z XMR
SOUNDING SHOWS 15 KNOT SW GRADIENT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND THIS...
COMBINED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD OFF
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

12Z RUC40 FORECASTS S/W TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING APPEARS A BIT LATE
FOR IT TO UTILIZE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. HOWEVER...12Z XMR AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN ENOUGH SFC
HEATING...BUT CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE SUNSHINE MAY BE LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...INGREDIENTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE
A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED SEVERE IN HWO AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCT.

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE OUT HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH...SINCE DRIER
AIR IS FILTERING IN...NO BOUNDARY EXISTS FOR CELLS TO TRAIN ACROSS
AND THEY DID NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH RAIN IN THE LAST EVENT AS OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO BACK OFF A LITTLE ON STRONG WORDING
REGARDING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES. STRONG CONVECTION MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

.MLB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
311700-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
539 AM EST SAT MAR 31 2001

...SCATTERED STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THEREFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN SURFACE HEATING IS AT ITS
PEAK. THIS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE INSTABILITY AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOONS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE WATER TO
COLLECT IN LOW LYING AREAS QUICKER THAN NORMAL.

STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR YOUR COUNTY.

REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DANGEROUS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT
OUTDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES...YOU SHOULD SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IN A STURDY ENCLOSED STRUCTURE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND STATEMENTS.

GITTINGER