Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, March 29, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EST THU MAR 29 2001

UPPER DYNAMICS WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND WILL PUT US UNDER NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IS SPREADING A BLANKET OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT IR IMAGERY INDICATES TOPS ARE WARMING.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT AS COOL AND WIND FIELDS NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME SOLAR HEATING ESP ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO HELP WITH DESTABILIZATION. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO SCATTERED AND IMPROVE SKY CONDITIONS
ESP NORTH.

MARINE...S/SW WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND EXPECT
THEM TO REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE DAY SO WILL LOWER SCA TO
EXERCISE CAUTION.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOTTMAN

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
291600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 AM EST THU MAR 29 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. A SQUALL LINE MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

ALL STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
A STORM. OPEN HUTS ON BEACHES AND GOLF COURSES ARE NOT SAFE IN
STORMS...GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
IN YOUR AREA.

ALSO...DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED AND CAUTION IS ADVISED
ON AREA LAKES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A NORTHWARD FLOWING
CURRENT ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. SWIM NEAR A LIFE GUARD AND NEVER
TRY TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST THE CURRENTS.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS
AVAILABLE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

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