Tornado in Florida, March 29, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
925 AM EST THU MAR 29 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...

HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS TO ADD HEADLINE FOR THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH TODAY. THE WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FROM MANATEE AND POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO LEVY.

A LINE OF STRONE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE FA. THE NORTHERN END OF THE LINE IS NOW
HITTING LEVY COUNTY...AND EXPECT IT TO REACH THE PINELLAS COAST
AROUND 10 AM. THE MORNING WIND PROFILE SHOWED STRONG LOW LEVEL
VEERING...WITH SE WINDS AT THE SFC...TO SW WINDS ABOVE. WIND SPEEDS
JUST ABOVE 1K FT WERE 40 TO 45 KTS. SPC EXPECTS THE MAIN THREATS
FROM STORMS TO BE STRAIT LINE WIND GUSTS...BUT 88D SIGNATURES HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS.

EXPECT A BUSY MORNING AND WILL MONITOR FORECAST FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES THIS MORNING.

MARINE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AT 1030 AM...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY BIG CHANGES. WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30 KTS WELL OFFSHORE...AND
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP A LITTLE FROM TARPON NORTH.

.TBW...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 2 PM FOR LEVY CITRUS HERNANDO
       SUMTER PASCO PINELLAS HILLSBOROUGH POLK MANATEE
      .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
       60NM INCLUDING 6TAMPA BAY.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-291630-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
541 AM EST THU MAR 29 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE
   SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
SEVERE.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION STRONG
WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE GULF
AND MAKE BAY AND INLAND WATERWAYS VERY ROUGH. MARINERS SHOULD BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD SEEK A SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT TODAY.

ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. SKYWARN
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HERE IN RUSKIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND OR WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.
ANOTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE LATER
THIS MORNING.

MCMICHAEL