Hail in Florida, June 4, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2001

UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE WITH SFC RIDGE
CURRENTLY PLACED OVER THE N FL. SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERATING
STREAKY CU FIELD AS WEST COAST SEABREEZE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND AS SEEN IN SAT IMAGERY. CURRENT TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BEGIN
SHORTLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SE FLOW/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WITH LIS -5 TO -6 AND CAPES OVER 3000 TO CONTINUE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA. ALL MODEL GRAPHICS ALSO INDICATING
AFTERNOON PRECIP FIELDS OVER INTERIOR ZONES THEN MOVING OVER THE
COAST THEREAFTER AS STRONGER E COAST SEABREEZE DRIVES CONVECTION
WESTWARD. WILL BUY OFF ON THIS SOLUTION WITH THE COMBINATION
OF UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE/DIURNAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FOR
CHANCE EVENING POPS TONIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON WED AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. MODEL TEMPS LOOK GOOD WILL BLEND.

MARINE...SE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE WATERS AS
RIDGE REMAINS N THRU 48 HRS. RIDGE TO SINK S AS FRONT APPROACHES TO
E GULF THU/FRI.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS DEEPENING TROF MOVES INTO
THE S MS RV VALLEY INTO THU. SFC FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. UPPER SUPPORT WITH VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF THE
TROF TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO GET HUNG OVER S FL PENINSULA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE S OF FRONT AND SOME SFC DRYING OVER
THE N PENINSULA. UPPER TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN.

THX COORD MLB.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 75/91/75/90 4645
FMY 72/91/73/91 4645

.TBW...NONE.

RD