Damaging Wind in Florida, July 23, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2001

BUSY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEARWATER BEACH.  GRADIENT
SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW ARE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 25
MPH...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE 40 TO 45 MPH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRANSLATING THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TO THE
SURFACE.  THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDES TO RUN 3 TO 3
AND A HALF FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL...OR 4 TO 5 MSL DURING HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THIS REASON...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE PAST 6 TO 10 HOURS...WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES.  DUE TO THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST...MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GULF VERY WELL AS THEY PULL IT QUICKLY NORTHWEST OVER
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AXIS OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE PULLING QUICKLY NORTH...NORTH OF THE TAMPA AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS SEEMS MUCH TOO FAST AND WILL BASE FORECAST ON
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD SITUATION DURING TOMORROW MORNINGS/AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE AS
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE AS BAD AS IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE CURRENT TIME.

MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE STRONG AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS PERSIST...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ADVECT SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS SLOWLY NORTHWEST.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION...HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TRACK OR SPEED OF
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW.

EXTENDED...MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 75/84/75/89 6835
FMY 74/86/74/90 6735

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FLZ042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065 THROUGH
       TUESDAY MORNING.
    ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FLZ050-051-055-060-062-065 THROUGH 7 PM
       THIS EVENING
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ830-853-856-873-876 TONIGHT.
    ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY GMZ830-853-856-873-876 TONIGHT.

OGLESBY