Hail and Damaging Winds in Colorado, July 23, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
201 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2001

...MAIN CONCERN IS POPS & HVY RAIN POTENTIAL NEXT FEW DAYS...

CURRENTLY...SURGE FROM NE COLO IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE CO.
CURRENLTY EXTENDS FROM EL PASO OUT E TO THE LAA AREA. AM GETTING A
BIT CONCERNED THAT THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWING DOWN IN THE EL PASO
COUNTY AREA. QUITE A FEW STORMS ALREADY HAVE FORMED OVER THE FA...
MAINLY HIER TERRAIN. WAT VAP SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME OVER AREA AND
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES SEEN IN THIS FLOW. CAPES CURRENTLY IN THE 2000
J/KG WITH 5-6 K ACROSS NE CO/W KS.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...MESO-ETA INDICATES THE WORST WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS 15 KNTS UPSLOPE INDICATED ALL THE WAY UP ABOVE 700 MB
LEVEL. EXPECT LOCAL AREAS OF HVY RAIN AND A FEW SVR CELLS AS STORM
INTERACT WITH LLVL JUICED UP AIR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...DEFERRED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HAS
NOT RAINED IN AWHILE AND PWATS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE OFF OF 12Z
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION....STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE. ONLY
CONCERN WOULD BE IF STORMS WOULD ANCHOR TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH MENTION OF HVY RAINS IN SIG WX AND ZFP PACKAGES.

DISCUSSION...LOTS OF INTERESTING WX TO TALK ABOUT. WITH TROUGH
REMAINING TO OUR WEST AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE ABOUT...SHOULD
SEE GOOD CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA NEXT FEW DAYS. CONCERNS WILL
BE EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FLOW ALOFT
OVER SE COLORADO IS GOING TO BE INCREASING WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS EACH DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL STAY WITH THE AREA UNTIL THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST LIFTS OUT. MAIN CONCERN ABOUT TOMORROW IS HOW
STABLE WILL THE ATMOS BE FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION? MESOETA HINTS AT
THINGS GOING LATE TOMORROW DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
DISTURBANCES COMING ACROSS...AND THE ATMOS QUITE POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE...BELIEVE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET THINGS GOING.

AS WITH TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD END W-E...WITH THINGS ENDING LATE
ON THE FAR E PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING SVR-WX WISE. WITH TROUGH JUST
TO THE WEST...FLOW AT JET LVL IN THE 50-60 KNT RANGE. 30 KNTS OF
DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE...UPSLOPE AND CAPES IN THE 1-2K RANGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW SVR STORMS TO GET SPINNING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. WILL ALSO SEE CONTINUED THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HVY RAIN WITH THE HIGH VALUES OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THURSDAY...SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT OVER THE NW PART OF
COLORADO...THIS WILL ALLOW ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS
SHOULD FORCE THE SFC TROUGH INTO KS...DRYING OUT THE E PLAINS. FOR
THIS REASON...BROUGHT EXTENDED TEMPS UP AND WENT ~SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS.

.PUB....NONE.

HODANISH

COZ058>081-232000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT MON JUL 23 2001

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE
MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH...MOVING
ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE WAS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK...THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WINDS TO 65 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

HODANISH