Hail in Florida, July 17, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2001

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED
BY 88D RETURNS. SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER SHEAR AXIS APPEAR TO BE
DISRUPTING THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO SOME DEGREE
AS I WRITE...BUT STILL EXPECT THESE BOUNDARIES TO BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE REST OF THE FA THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE 5 PM
PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK UPPER
TROUGHINESS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SE AND STRONG
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S./SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE
REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVIDING THE ENTIRE FA WITH A WEAK
GRADIENT AND A CONTINUATION OF SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN PWS...PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTM WORDING...BUT WITH 1000-700MB STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL LOOK FOR THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
TO RESIDE OVER INTERIOR ZONES EACH AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ADVERTISED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL USE A
BLEND IN MOST ZONES WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO EACH DAY.

EXTENDED...(FRI-TUE)...LATEST AVN/ETA RUNS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AROUND
FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AND NOW THE ETA HAS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN FA ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GA. LIKE
YESTERDAY WHEN THE AVN DEPICTED THIS...STILL THINK THIS DRYING IS
WAY OVERDONE AND PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE LATEST NGM/AVN
SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEPS PWS CLOSE TO 2 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGD TO MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED WORDING
IN ALL ZONES. NO TEMPERATURE CHANGES EXPECTED.

MARINE...WIND AND SEA EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO
THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH PM SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS
ANTICIPATED.

THANKS FOR COORD CALL KMLB.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA TB 076/091 076/091 4544
FMY TT 076/091 075/092 4645

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL