Hail in Florida, April 25, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED APR 25 2001

CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF
IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING ITSELF TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE FL PENINSULA.  LATEST SAT PICS SHOW
MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIMIT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.  CU FIELD FORMING IMMEDIATLY S OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH SEABREEZES NOTED S OF KMLB...SOME CU POCKETS
DEVELOPING INTO RW/TRW.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA.  NRN CWA PRECIP
APPEARS TO BE DONE...WILL CONTINUE WDLY SCT EVENING POPS TO COVER
ANY LINGERING RW.  MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
OVER THE ERN GOMEX WITH A STRONG POCKET OF H70 OMEGA JUST E OF
KTPA...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AREA OF H50 PVA AND A WEAK COUPLED JET
PATTERN.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN CWA AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS E.  BUT BEFORE IT CAN DO SO...THE SCT DIURNAL RW/TRW FORMING
AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL USE UP A GOOD BIT OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY
WILL KEEP SCT POPS OVR THE SRN AREAS...BUT WILL GO LESS THAN 50%.

THU/FRI...FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN FL STRAITS ON THU.  STRONG
HI PRES RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A STEEP PGRAD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA THU...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON FRI.  SUSTAINED 15-20KT NE
WINDS THU AND 10-15KT FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO CLIMO.

EXTENDED...MRF AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT RETURN MOISTURE
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW AGREEMENT WRT THE PRESSURE FIELDS.   25/00Z MRF...CONSISTENT
THE PREVIOUS RUN...STALLS THE FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE SRN FL
STRAITS FRI NIGHT AS ITS DRIVING HI PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. BOTH
MODELS AGREE WITH MOVING A REINFORCING AREA OF HI PRES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE MID ATLC COAST BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
MON.  THIS SHOULD DELAY MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE NRN CWA UNTIL
MON...BUT CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD SEE ENOUGH OF A RETURN FLOW TO KEEP
POPS IN THE FCST FOR NOW.  WILL DELAY POPS FOR THE NRN AREAS UNTIL
MON AS THE REINFORCING HI SHOULD BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELAY THE
MOISUTRE RETURN.

MARINE...SOLID LINE OF 25-30KT NE WINDS OBSERVED OFFSHORE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO CHARLESTON.  THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY
PUSH S AND INTO NRN WATERS LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN ABV SCA
CRITERIA.  SCA WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN WATERS ON THU AS THE
FRONT PASSES S OF THE AREA.  THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD WEAKENA BIT FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD BUILD FAR ENOUGH S BY LATE SUN TO SEE A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS BY NO LATER THAN 12Z MON.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BU 062/075 055/076 056 410
MCO BU 064/079 057/081 057 410
MLB BU 063/076 061/078 062 520   81

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOTTMAN

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1021 AM EDT WED APR 25 2001

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.  SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR REGIONS NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE.  ANY LIGHTNING STORMS
THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  STORMS WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON....MAINLY SOUTH OF
VERO BEACH.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND
COCOA BEACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ALL LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POTENTIAL
KILLERS...WHETHER THEY PRODUCE 10 BOLTS OR 10,000 BOLTS.  ALSO
REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING CAN AND OFTEN DOES STRIKE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE STORMS RAINFALL.  DO NOT HESITATE TO SEEK SHELTER IF
LIGHTNING IS SEE OR IF THUNDER IS HEARD.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS
AVAILABLE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

BRAGAW