High Wind in Colorado, May 9, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
340 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WK SHT WV IN ZNL FLO ALF WILL MOVE ACRS
AREA THIS AFTN AT MAX HEATING TIME...SO WILL GO WITH ISOLD POPS
ON PLAINS AND SCT MTNS FOR LATE DAY SHWRS AND TSTMS EVEN THOUGH
CAPES ARE LO ON NGM AND OVRDONE ON MESOETA DUE TO TOO HI DWPTS.
ALL MDLS SHW A GUD AMT OF MID AND HI LVL MSTR BY ARND MIDDY AND
STLT LOOP CONFIRMS THIS MSTR MOVG INTO AREA.   BOTH AVN AND NGM
MOS TEMP GDNC HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL UNDERCUT
THEM AND GO WITH MDLS H7 TEMPS REDUCED TO SFC.  WHILE OVRNGT LO
TEMPS WILL BE HIR AFTN CLDS AND PCPN WILL INHIBIT HEATING LATE.
GARD...WFO BOULDER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING WITH JET LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY.  LATEST MODEL GRIDS SHOW LESS OF AN EFFECT ON THE
SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS AS THEY DID ON YESTERDAY MORNINGS RUNS.
NOW IT DOES NOT EVEN LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A FRONT AT ALL FOR
THIS EVENING.  THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THIS EVENING AND SOME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  BUT THE LAPSE RATES ARENT GREAT AT THE MID
LEVELS...AND THE DIV-Q GRIDS SHOW WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT.  WILL
PUT SOME LIMITED POPS IN OVER THE PLAINS EARLY.  OVERNIGHT THE
MOISTURE GRIDS SHOW SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT THE
SATELLITE PICTURES UPSTREAM.   WILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR IT OUT
OVERNIGHT.  ON THURSDAY...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STEEPER LAPSE RATES
...DECENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
THIS EVENING.  THERE IS EVEN A THETA-E AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND AS A RESULT CAPES ARE 1500-2200 JOULES/KG CAPE FROM
18-00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
ACROSS US FROM 00Z-06Z THURSDAY EVENING.  AGAIN GRIDS ADVERTISE
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT AND UPSLOPE BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE
THURSDAY NIGHT.  WELL SEE.  CURRENT ZONES DO HAVE POPS IN ALREADY
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL MAKE PICAYUNE CHANGES ONLY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW A 1.5 TO 2.5 C WARM-UP FRO THURSDAY
HIGHS COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED READINGS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GRIDS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE
IN.  FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH VERY MOISTURE AROUND.  WILL LEAVE EXTENDED PRETTY
MUCH ALONE.             RJK

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-092000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL END
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.  THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
DRY...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.  THE STORMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE.
THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  ALONG
THE EASTERN BORDER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY:  SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

H
GIMMESTAD