Hail in Colorado, July 15, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

ETA AND NGM INITIALIZED WELL AT MOST FIELDS. THE AVN WAS TOO DEEP
WITH H7 TROUGH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND TOO COOL OVER THIS
SAME REGION. OUT TO 18Z THE AVN IS BUILDING A RIDGE INTO CENTRAL WY
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A TROUGH. THE ETA IS CLOSEST WITH DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OVER THE PALMER OFF THE FRONT RANGE AS EVIDENCED BY
CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND SFC OBS. THE AVN IS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS UP TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH THE NGM BEING MUCH TOO
DRY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND NGM FOR THIS PACKAGE FOR
THE ABOVE REASONS.

TONIGHT WEAK TO MODERATE DVV IS PRESENT EARLY. BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND BEING NEAR TO ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL PUT A CHANCE
OF TS EARLY BEFORE COOLING CUTS OFF THE CONVECTIVE LEGS. TOMORROW
RIDGE BEGINS ITS RETURN... WITH WARMER H7 TEMPS RETURNING.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS POOLED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
THAT DOES NOT PUSH OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDDAY WILL NOT
STRAY FAR FROM FWC TEMPS. BY TUESDAY RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
REGION AND WILL GO WITH H7 SUPPORTED TEMPS OVER ENTIRE REGION. WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS TUESDAY NIGHT AS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE TEMP AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT BEFORE
NIGHTTIME COOLING CUTS OFF CONVECTION.

IN THE EXTENDED... MODELS DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
THE ECMWF HAS A MORE FLATTENED RIDGE PUSHING TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE
TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PAC AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE MRF HAS A MORE MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AND A RESULTANT
RETROGRADED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. FEEL THAT THIS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IS A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FLATTENED RIDGE
SOLUTION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AND KEEP CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY ON IN THE EXTENDED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN