Hail in Colorado, July 11, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2001

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING WITH THE CENTER SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...COOLER AIR AT
THE SURFACE AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EXTENDED FROM HILL CITY
TO JUST SOUTH OF TRIBUNE AT 19Z. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. THETA-E AT THE SURFACE HAS RISEN TO OVER
360K OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AT 20Z. CONVECTION WAS FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF LIMON IN THE
WEST SECTION OF THE SFC THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS
THE CAP ERODES FROM THE WEST.

THE 18Z MESO ETA HAS SHIFTED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS COMPARED TO THE 12Z ETA RUN. IT APPEARS THE MESO ETA
IS ON A BETTER TRACK THAT THE OTHER NCEP MODELS RUN AT 12Z. BOTH THE
AVN AND NGM KEEP PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT. THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW THE MESO
ETA IN THE EARLY PERIODS WITH A BLEND OF THE AVN FARTHER OUT. THE
AVN HAS HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO LOWS THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. AVN MAV AND FAN MOS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD THE LAST
FEW RUNS. PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST BET FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE MIDWEST ATTEMPTS TO BACK
DOOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. APPEARS THE MRF
MAY BE TOO STRONG WITH THE PACIFIC LOW FORMING ALONG THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATING HIGHS WELL ABOVE 90.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAT AROUND 90 ADVERTISED BY THE
FMR AND MEX.

.GLD...NONE.

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COZ090>092-120015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2001

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
WATCH INCLUDES YUMA...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO. A
WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
KANSAS BORDER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.  IF
OUTSIDE...MOVE TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING.

$$

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