Flash Flood and Hail in Colorado, July 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2001

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THE ATMOSPHERE HAD BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH LIFTED
INDICES NEAR -10 AT 19Z NORTHWEST OF KSNY. THE AVN HAS BEEN TOO COOL
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH MOS LOWS AND HIGHS. THE NGM WAS NOT
HANDLING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AS WELL AS ETA/MESO
ETA...BUT OTHERWISE THE NGM AND THE ETA APPEAR TO BE DOING A
REASONABLY GOOD JOB WITH THE SCENARIO...SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE
2 MODELS.

THE 18Z MESO ETA RUN INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THAN THE EARLIER ETA RUN. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STORMS
BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
GO ABOVE NGM GUIDANCE AGAIN AS THE NGM (AND AVN) HAS HAD A DRY BIAS
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  BACK DOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE KHLC AND KMCK AREAS AS CONVECTION IN VERY COOL AIR NORTHEAST
OF THE FRONT HELPS PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW
SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THAT FIRE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
REMAINING BOUNDARIES AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MRF WAS NO LONGER INDICATING MUCH OF A FROPA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MRF HAS RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS
12 DEGREES (77 TO 89 OF THE MEX FOR FRIDAY). NOT READY TO
COMPLETELY ACCEPT THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF THAT
DEVELOPS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP STORMS IN ALL 5 DAYS AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND ALLOWS IMPULSES TO TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.GLD...NONE.

SKIPPER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA
HAS HELPED TO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION HAS ALSO INCREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THOUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR PROFILES INDICATING ROTATING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

LOCKHART