Damaging Winds in Colorado, August 20, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
100 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2001

...THE MONSOON RETURNS...

MDLS CONSISTENT IN SPRDG TROPICAL MONSOONAL MSTR NWD FM MEX INTO
CNTRL RCKYS THRU PRD.  MRNG STLT LOOP SHWS ABUNDANT CLDNS OVR AREA
WITH WDSPRD CONVECTION STILL ON GOING INTO ERLY MRNG HRS.  MDLS
ALSO SHW GUD SHT WV MOVG ACRS AREA DURING MAX HEATING TIME THIS
AFTN.  FOR THIS REASON WILL UP POPS MST PLACES TO SCT WITH LIKELY
MTNS THIS AFTN AND NGT.  NGM HAS HIR PRECIPITIBLE WATERS AND MORE
SATURATION IN FCST UPR AIR SOUNDINGS THAN MESOETA.  NGM CAPES ARE
ALSO HIR AND FVRD ATTM.  GO ALG WITH SPC THINKING ON PSBL SVR TSTMS
OVR NERN CRNR BUT LIC TO CYS LINE MAY BE TOO FAR W.  A DRYLINE TYPE
BOUNDARY WILL FORM OUT THERE TDA.  ON TUE THE MONSOON FLO IS STILL
IN PLACE BUT FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS SATURATED AS TDA BUT NGM
CAPES ARE STILL QUITE HI...BUT THE ABSENCE OF A GUD SHT WV MAY WELL
REDUCE THE THRT OF PCPN...SO WILL LWR POPS SUM TUE.  WITH ALL THE
INCRSD MSTR AND CLDNS TDAS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT WRM TO YSTRDYS LVLS
AND OVRNGT MIN TEMPS WILL BE WRMR.

IN XTNDD PRD...WILL MAKE NO CHNGS ATTM.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-202000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1000 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TODAY AS
A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A POTENT SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE BRISKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, CAUSING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS.  THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE TO
ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.  THE
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS FORT MORGAN AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ROUGHLY EAST OF A
CHEYENNE WYOMING TO LIMON LINE.  ABUNDANT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH.  THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE IN PARTICULAR WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AFTER 4 PM FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.