Hail in Colorado, August 13, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT MON AUG 13 2001

CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX HAS DISSIPATED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDEVELOPMENT
FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDED INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD ALSO POOLED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. STORMS WERE FIRING ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IT WILL BE VERY
HARD...AT LEAST INITIALLY...TO GET CONVECTION MUCH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS OR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE. THE AVN APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION
TOO FAR EAST WHEREAS THE ETA HAS NO PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED. WILL ATTEMPT A BLEND OF
THE NGM AND THE ETA FOR THIS PACKAGE FAVORING THE TIMING OF THE ETA.

BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE WAS A RATHER COMPLEX ORIENTATION OF TROFS.
THE NGM APPEARS TO EJECT THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EAST TOO FAST...AND
THE AVN EVEN FASTER. NGM TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...EVEN THOUGH THE
MOS HAS RAISED POPS AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN.

ANTICIPATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A
FAIRLY DEEP LEE SIDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. THE
NGM (ALREADY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WIND AT 18 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
HLC) USUALLY UNDERFORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THIS SITUATION.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE TROF HANGS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS INTO THIS WEEKEND ACCORDING TO NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THIS FLOW. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL RECOVERING EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BACK DOOR COOL FRONTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER THAN THE FMR.

.GLD...NONE.

SKIPPER