Blizzard in Colorado, April 22, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
230 PM MDT SUN APR 22 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...A BIT SLOWER THAN THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
TWO AREAS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE EVENING.
FIRST...WARM MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE SHARP FRONT IS PRODUCING
DECENT CONVECTION EAST OF AKRON AND STERLING...EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL.  IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
BE ALL SNOW AND HAIL IN THIS AREA NOW.  MAIN PLAYER IS THE NICE BACK
EDGE DEFORMATION BAND WHICH IS FATTENING NICELY JUST EAST OF
DENVER.  SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS ABOUT AT I-70 AND THIS
SHOULD MOVE ROUGHLY ENE...PROBABLY SPARING LINCOLN COUNTY FROM THE
HEAVY SNOW.  AREAS FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF AT LEAST
INCH PER HOUR SNOWS THIS EVENING.  TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BAND IS UNCERTAIN AS IT IS STATIONARY AND STRENGTHENING NOW.  MODELS
ARE TOO FAST MOVING IT OUT BY AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.  A BLIZZARD
WARNING SEEMS WARRANTED FROM BRIGGSDALE...FORT MORGAN AND BYERS
EAST.  WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FARTHER WEST NEED TO RUN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT CAN PROBABLY BE DROPPED THEN.  BROAD
MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRAILS BEHIND
THE MAIN SNOW BAND.  THIS SHOULD SHRINK SOME WITH TIME...BUT I WILL
DELAY THE CLEARING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.  ALSO NEED TO HANG ONTO THE
PLAINS WINDS LONGER.  ALREADY DROPPED LOW A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.    GIMMESTAD

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  U/A TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRANSLATING
E-NEWRD ACRS NRN AND CNTRL GREAT PLAINS MON MRNG WILL STILL HV SOME
IMPACT ON FAR NERN CO ZNS.  GRIDS SHOW STG (25-40KT) N/NWLY
850-700MB WND SPDS LINGERING IN THE AREA UNTIL 18Z/MON.  AS PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WITH UPR JET AXIS SHIFTING EWRD SHOULD SEE A
QUICK DROP OFF IN SPDS DURING THE AFTN.  OTWS A STEADY WARMUP WILL
BEGIN MON  WITH LARGE UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING EWRD OVR CO BY
MIDWEEK.  ONLY THING THAT MIGHT DELAY WARMUP WILL BE PASSAGE OF A WK
SHRTWV TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED WK PAC COLD FNT LATE MON NGT/TUE
MRNG.  COULD SEE A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHWRS MON NGT/TUE MRNG OVR HIR
ELVTNS OF ZNS 31.. 33 AND 35 AND SOME GUSTY W/NWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES...FTHLS AND ADJCNT PLNS FOR SVRL HRS TUE MRNG SHRTLY AFT
PASSAGE OF SYSTEM.  OTWS WAVE/FRONT PASSAGE WILL ONLY DELAY ARRIVAL
OF 70+ DEG TEMPS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NERN PLNS UNTIL WED.
LATTER HALF OF WEEK LOOKS QUITE WARM AND VOID OF ANY PCPN.  HERES A
HINT...MOS GUIDANCE GIVING A MAX TEMP AT DEN ARND 80 BY WEEK/S END.
MAYBE A TAD AMBITIOUS IF MID/UPR LVLS MOISTEN UP LATE THU/FRI WITH
UPR RIDGE AXIS SHFTG E OF CONT DVD ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RNG MODELS.
BAKER

.DEN...BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING NORTHEAST PLAINS...ZNS
         42..44..45...48>51.
       SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THIS EVENING LIMON...ZN 46.

COZ030>051-222000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1115 AM MDT MON APR 22 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH IN AREAS ABOVE TIMBERLINE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.  ELSEWHERE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY:  PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.

GIMMESTAD