Hail in Colorado, April 10, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
240 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2001

MAJOR CHALLENGES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SW MOUNTAINS AND PIKES
PEAK REGION TONIGHT AND WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM IN ARIZONA WITH WELL
DEFINED COMMA CLOUD. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SW MOUNTAINS WELL
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. IN THE EAST WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT WITH LOW DEW
POINTS. WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SLOWLY. LOW CLOUDS RECEDING OVER PALMER DIVIDE.

AVN AND ETA IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AZ SYSTEM BUT NOT AS GOOD
WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH DEEPEN AZ SYSTEM QUICKLY TONIGHT
THEN MOVE IT OUT FAST ON WEDNESDAY AS KICKER APPROACHES. SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO DEEPEN IN SE COLORADO AND MOVE TO NW KS EARLY WED.
BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH FORECAST TONIGHT IS SNOW AMOUNTS IN ZNS
58/59/60/61/67 AND 72. WITH LOW FORMING MOVING ACROSS AZ THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GOOD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADV CRITERIA BUT LOCALLY HIGHER. COORD WITH KGJT. WILL
FIGURE ON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM EAST THIS EVENING ACROSS PALMER
DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE AS SFC LOW FORMS IN SE COLO. WITH STRONG
EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD EXPECT BIGGEST SNOWS ALONG AND NORTH
OF DIVIDE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW OVERNIGHT IN
72. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW WILL HOIST SN/BLSN ADV FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ZN 67. TIMING
WILL BE CRITICAL. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO NORTH WEST LATE. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS GOOD FOR SNOW ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RAMPART RANGE BUT THE NORTHWEST WIND IS BETTER
FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN TELLER COUNTY. QUITE A WORDING
DILEMMA.

WEDNESDAY...COLDER AND WIND MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH PRECIP AWAY FROM
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MORNING HOURS. WILL ADJUST WORDING
SLIGHTLY TO HELP WITH THE PRECIP TRANSITION.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ZONES 58 AND 59.

IN THE EXTENDED...MRF AND AVN HAVE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLO THURSDAY NIGHT QUITE ABIT FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER
THAN ETA AT 60HRS. WILL MENTION CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT SYSTEM IS OUT OF HERE FRIDAY. MODELS BUILD A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK IMPULSE RIPPLING IN THE
FLOW. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE SO WILL LEAVE WORDING ALONE. MRF
SUGGESTING AN UPSLOPE SURGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD MAKE SINCE AS DEEP LOW FORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. WILL MENTION MORE CLOUDS
AND COOL THE TEMPS ABIT FOR TUESDAY.

FORTUNE

.PUB...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT ZN 58>59 LAKE COUNTY
       AND EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS...ZN 67 TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART
       RANGE/PIKES PEAK...AND ZNh 72 NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.