Flash Flood in California, July 7, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 7 2001

CONVECTION QUITE ACTIVE OVER ALL HIGH TERRAIN AND THE DESERT PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CWFA. BEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KERN COUNTY LINE IN THE LOS PADRES AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRING VICINITY OF ROSAMOND WITH A LOT OF STANDING WATER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES IN MOIST SOUTHERLY PLUME
AIDED BY WEAK UPPER AIR DYNAMICS AND DE-STABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING BEFORE STARTING
THE CYCLE ALL OVER AGAIN ON SUNDAY. VERY SLOW DRYING TREND FROM THE
SOUTH SO EXPECT CONVECTION ON SUNDAY TO HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL
COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

TRENDS IN MODELS GENERALLY FAVORING A SLOW TURN TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. HUMIDITIES AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKER THAN
LOW LEVELS BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION ENDING IN THE DESERT BY MONDAY.
WITH DRYING EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP SLIGHTLY WHILE
MINIMUMS LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. WEAK SYNOPTIC COOLING AT
MIDWEEK TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO DIP BEFORE SOME CLIMBING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. POPS FAT 0000 BFL 1110 YNP 6554

.HNX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM UNTIL 9:00 PM THIS EVENING FOR
       ZONES 95>99.

 GUDGEL