Heat in California, July 1 to 2, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT SAT JUN 30 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...

THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. MOISTURE IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR WITH WARM
DAYS INLAND.

                             ...DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE A FEW CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NRN BAJA. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING UP FROM THE
S. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG WERE LOCALLY INTO WRN INLAND SAN VALLEYS THIS
AM AND FINALLY CLEARED FROM THE BEACHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN SE FLOW ALOFT. INVERSION BASED
NEAR 1400 FT...JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AND WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS.
GRADIENTS SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE BUT STILL OVER 7 MB SAN-IPL.

UPPER HI TO CONTINUE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ROTATE AROUND THIS HI INTO OUR AREA. BOTH 00Z NGM AND ETA DEVELOP AN
INTENSE VORT MAX AND PRECIP BULLSEYE OVER S-CENTRAL AZ BY 06Z TONIGHT
AND THEN WEAKEN IT AND MOVES IT THROUGH SRN CA LATE SUNDAY/MON AM. THIS
LOOKS OVERDONE AND IS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF CONTAMINATION FROM BAD PSR
RAOB. THE CIRCULATION W OF SRN BAJA DOES NOT SEEM TO BE INIT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ANY OF THE PROGS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DRIFT WNW AND
COULD ACTUALLY CARRY SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR S OFF TO THE W. SO WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE TO S AND E. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CONTINUED NIGHT/MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
EXCEPT JUST A BIT DEEPER. RELATIVELY MINOR TEMP CHANGES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. DESERTS SHOULD REMAIN HOT
ENOUGH FOR THERMAL LOW TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON/EVE BREEZES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE MAX TEMPS NEAR THE COAST.

LONGER RANGE PROGS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GROSS FEATURES. MRF
GRADUALLY INCREASES MOISTURE FROM THE SE. MOST OF THIS REMAINS ABOVE
700 MB UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD IT PEAKING
AROUND MID WEEK. GIVEN THIS INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
ABILITY OF PROGSp TO HANDLE DETAILS OF THE RH FIELD THAT FAR OUT...
CURRENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS/DESERTS LOOKS OK.

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN