High Wind in California, December 24, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SUN DEC 23 2001

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BECOME WARMER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

.DISCUSSION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
FOOTHILLS AS RAMONA HAD A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE. OFFSHORE FLOW WAS
INCREASING TOO...AND SURFACE GRADIENTS WERE NOW 10 MB OFFSHORE FROM
TONOPAH TO SAN DIEGO. THE 02Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM ONTARIO SHOWED A
35-KT WIND AT JUST BELOW 5000 FEET...SO ALL OF THIS CONVINCES ME TO
START THE WIND ADVISORY NOW. FREMONT CANYON IS ALSO GUSTING TO 37
MPH...SO THEY WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE WAD CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. IVORYS WIND
PROGRAM HAS MOST STATIONS STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING...AND FREMONT
CANYON COULD BE MARGINALLY ABOVE FOR ONE MODEL OUTPUT
PERIOD...12Z...BUT ONE RAWS SITE IN THE VERY WINDIEST LOCATION IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. ALSO...IN THE UPDATE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE ADDED TO
THE SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS.

THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 850/700 MB COLD-AIR
ADVECTIONS DECREASE...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND SOME
PASS/CANYON WIND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY JUST BELOW WAD
CRITERIA. 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL TUE...SO MTN/DESERT AREAS
WILL SEE MINIMAL INCREASES IN TEMPS MON BEFORE A WARM-UP TUE. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NE OFF THE COAST OF OREGON TUESDAY...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT ERODE OUR RIDGE ANY DOWN HERE. SOME EROSION OF THE RIDGE
DOWN HERE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE
BIG ALBERTA/NW TERRITORIES HIGH...SO...WE SHOULD HAVE A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER BY FRI WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYS.

THE UPDATE...BOTH WITH THE ZONES AND THE WAD...WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.SAN...WIND ADVISORIES...SEE LAXNPWSAN.

MAXWELL