High Surf in California, August 12, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY
INLAND...AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.  WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW WITH BRING MOISTURE TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER.

                             ...DISCUSSION...
AN ONSHORE TREND DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENTS TO THE NORTHEAST
INCREASED...AND HAS LIFTED THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER TO ABOUT 22
HUNDRED FEET. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK EDDY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUD AND FOG PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE DURING
THE COMING WEEK.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE PATTERN VERY STAGNANT...WITH A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A RATHER STRONG
HUDSON BAY LOW...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SANDWICHED...MMM...SANDWICH...BETWEEN THEM OVER THE WEST.  THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW AND ASSOCIATE FLOW HAS JUST BARELY BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS STORM FREE.  HOWEVER...THIS MORNING THERE WAS A PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN DESERTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE BETWEEN TUCSON AND YUMA.  ALTHOUGH THE MORNING SOUNDING
CAME UP PRETTY DRY...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX.  ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE MODELS ARE NOT TOTALLY IN AGREEMENT...BUT THE
GENERAL SOLUTION IS CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED...
HOWEVER...I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

.SAN...NONE.

SMALL