Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, May 17, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2001

ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW STARTING BE COME MORE LINEAR ALONG SFC BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM NE KS TO WC OK. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WILL
KEEP STORM MOVEMENT ON THE SLOWER SIDE...SO CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS
KS SHOULD ENTER THE NW CORNER OF CWA AROUND BY 21Z. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E-SE UNLESS NEW CONVECTION FORMS ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW
FLOW...SEVERE THREAT MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING. HIGH PWS...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS WILL PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES IN ZONES. EVENING SHIFT WILL WANT TO
MONITOR FLOOD POTENTIAL ESP. ACROSS NRN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE TONIGHT. WILL FLIP-FLOP TOMORROW AND PUT HIGHEST POPS IN
SOUTH AND REDUCE TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRONT AND UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA BY LATE TOMORROW DAY...SO DONT
THINK RAIN WILL BE IN PICTURE(AT LEAST IN NE OK)ALL DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY
FROM THE WEST. SEVERAL WAVES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
TIL THEN.

00Z MRF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 12Z AVN CLOSES OFF UPPER LOW AS IT
DROPS SE IN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LOW MOVES VERY
SLOWLY EAST IN THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. WILL LEAVE EXTENDED
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL LOWER TEMPS
TUES-THURS.

FCSTID = 23
TUL   65  75  58  81 /  70  50  10  20
FSM   66  79  61  83 /  50  70  20  10
MLC   67  79  60  80 /  50  70  20  10
BVO   63  74  56  80 /  80  50  10  20
FYV   63  74  55  78 /  60  50  20  10
BYV   63  74  55  78 /  60  50  20  10
MIO   63  73  55  78 /  70  50  40  10
MKO   65  74  57  79 /  70  50  10  20
F10   65  75  58  81 /  70  50  10  20
HHW   69  80  59  81 /  50  70  20  20

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.