Hail in Arkansas, February 21, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 21 2001

LOTS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
TO THE NORTH AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY FROM KINX SHOWS SOME CONVECTION JUST EXITING NOWATA
AND CRAIG COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOME DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN TULSA/SOUTHEAST OSAGE COUNTIES. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF
SLEET IN BARTLESVILLE EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND THE ASOS AT BVO NOW
REPORTING FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ONLY ACROSS PAWNEE...OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES
ACCORDING TO LATEST SURFACE AND MESONET OBS. MEANWHILE SOIL
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 35 TO 39 DEGREES.

CALLS UP TO THE AFFECTED COUNTIES INDICATED NO PROBLEMS ARE
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE
ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION/LIGHT ICING. GIVEN WARM
SOIL TEMPERATURES...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY NOW...AS WIDESPREAD
TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. EXPOSED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GET A
GLAZE OF ICE...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. SOME SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION GIVEN COLD
POOL ALOFT.

12Z MESOETA SHOWS 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING...AND STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE ALL AFTERNOON. WILL ADD THUNDER FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ZONES IN UPDATE...TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. LAPS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
AREA SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WITH GOOD LIFT PROGGED
AHEAD OF WAVE...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 1730Z.

FCSTID = 6

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

TAYLOR

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CST WED FEB 21 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
   MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE
BOUNDARY...GENERATING LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE TRACK AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM PLACES NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AREAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES OUT
OF THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES. ANY LIGHT ICING THAT
OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FREESTANDING OBJECTS...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.