Hail in Arizona, September 16, 2001

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1040 AM MST SUN SEP 16 2001

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND MONDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC FORCING IS VERY WEAK AGAIN TODAY. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ROUGHLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTH. GOES SOUNDER DERIVED LIS SHOWING INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH LIS FALLING BETWEEN -2 AND -3 SO FAR THIS MORNING AS OF 1000
AM MST. KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY TODAY FOR THESE STORMS
TO WORK OFF OF...AS WELL AS A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR. AT 1000 AM MST
SHERIFF REPORTS OF ONE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN AND NUMEROUS FUNNEL
CLOUDS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE FORMING OFF OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING FROM ST JOHNS TO SNOWFLAKE. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LAND SPOUTS FORMING UNDER THE STRONGER AREAS
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTION. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP
WATER SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.6 INCHES AT THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER TO
1.5 INCHES ALONG SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. WE
WILL PUT MENTION IN THE ZONES OF SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND OVER TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.  SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SOME BACK BUILDING OF STORMS
TODAY...HENCE THE NEED FOR HIGHLIGHTS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AREAL
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

CLEMMONS

.FGZ...NONE.