Damaging Wind in Alabama, May 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

CURRENTLY...ACROSS THE CWA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO PREVAIL...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...AND A
WELL DEVELOPED CU FIELD REACHING TOWARD THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GA. SVR TSTM WATCH BOX IS WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AL/GA...ALONG THE FRONT. AREA TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S.
INCOMING CLOUDS MAY HAMPER ABY IN REACHING ITS FORECAST 90...TLH AND
VLD FARTHER AHEAD OF THE CLOUD FIELD WILL COME CLOSE.

MODELS/ZONES: SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN A TROF STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT. FOR THE MOST PART CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL RESULT MOSTLY FROM
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. THE STRONG VORT MAX OVER THE MID MS VLY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WESTERN KY THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT HAVING MUCH INFLUENCE ON
THE FA. BY LATE MONDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS MS/LA...WILL
BE APPROACHING. THE TLH 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY UNSTABLE BUT
DRY. MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO BELOW 1000 FEET...PW WAS 0.67
INCHES...LI WAS -6 AND CAPE WAS 2200 J/KG. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING TO 1.78 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STABILITY
STAYS ROUGHLY THE SAME...OR DECREASES SLIGHTLY. MOST OF THE ENERGY
WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. ANY CONVECTION
HERE WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THE WEAK INTERACTION OF THE NEARBY WEAK
FRONT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INDUCED BY SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW. STILL...WE
ARE LOOKING AT NO BETTER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL
TEMP GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

EXTENDED: TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES INTO LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A SHOT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FINALLY SHIFT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST IN
WAKE OF BOUNDARY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING
REESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY.

MARINE: LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW AND SEAS BELOW 4 FEET WILL PERSIST
THRU THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WX: EXPECT NO REQUIREMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 66 87 66 90 65 2322
PFN 71 80 71 81 70 2312
DHN 67 85 67 87 68 3322
ABY 68 85 67 86 67 3423
VLD 67 87 66 89 66 24222

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

AFD