Hail in Alabama, February 27, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
235 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2001

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...MAY
BE SOME OUTFLOW INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MORNING MODELS BUILD A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY HINDER SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF RAIN. SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING SOUTH BUT BELIEVE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR
WILL PUSH IT TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NOONISH OR SO AND THEN WILL
LIKELY WAIT UNTIL ANOTHER PUSH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND TO MOVE SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS THE GULF MOISTURE FEED WILL BE LARGELY UNTAPPED OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY OPEN UP SOME IN ADVANCE OF GULF
SURFACE LOW...IF IT DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED BY SOME MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND A THIRD WITH MOST OF
THIS BELOW 800 MB. WILL LIKELY BE SOME FOG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG INLAND.

EXTENDED...WILL BE A CHANGE HERE AS WE HAVE HAD TWO MODEL RUNS THAT
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVE IT TOWARD THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. ALREADY HAVE RAIN IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME BUT WILL ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY WHEN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
SURFACE LOW.  NAVY NOGAPS HAS A WEAKER SOLUTION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS AREA...SO STILL MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL IN THE
EXTENDED.

MARINE WEATHER...NO SCEC/SCA HIGHLIGHTS...DENSE SEA FOG DIDNT
DEVELOP AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT BUT WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AS SHOULD BE LESS CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB WE 058/073 054/065 055 11364
PNS WE 060/074 056/066 056 11364
DTS WE 061/072 058/065 058 11264
GZH WE 055/067 049/062 048 11875
2R0 WE 055/063 046/059 045 11864
61A WE 055/067 049/062 048 11875

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.