South Fork Black Creek near Penney Farms

1. 30.00 ftHistoric Flooding throughout the South Fork Creek Basin. Flooding renders Blanding Blvd in Middleburg and County Road 218 impassable.
2. 28.00 ftWater reaches and begins to cross Blanding Blvd at County Road 218 in Middleburg.
3. 26.00 ftCatastrophic flooding throughout the entire South Fork basin continues to expand. in Middleburg, water begins to flood several commercial properties south of Blanding Blvd. The first Baptist Church in Middleburg begins to flood. The approach to the County Road 218 bridge floods at this level.
4. 24.00 ftThe approaches to the State Road 16 Bridge near Penney Farms floods at this level. Flooding expands and affects several residences along Becky Street. Retention and holding ponds north of FL-218 begin to overflow into adjacent wooded areas from creek water backing up into the area.
5. 22.00 ftFlooding continues to worsen throughout the entire South Fork Basin. Homes along Saunders Lane and Elizabeth Lane begin to flood. Homes along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive, lightning Lane, and Thunder Road experience catastrophic flooding.
6. 20.00 ftSignificant flooding of homes and property along the entire South Fork Basin begin. This includes property along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Thunder Road and other main access roads along the creek become impassable. Evacuations in low lying areas are expected.
7. 17.50 ftFlooding begins to impact numerous homes and structures along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Access to homes will be cut off by flood waters. Evacuations in low lying areas may be necessary.
8. 16.00 ftFlooding of low lying structures along Creek Street begins. Creek Street and driveways leading to Black Creek Drive become impassable. Movement of property to higher ground is recommended.
9. 14.50 ftFlooding begins to impact low lying driveways and access roads along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Docks and other low lying property along the creek begin to flood.
10. 10.00 ftShould water levels continue rising, preparations to protect property should begin. Water bgins to come over the bank in a few low lying spots near Black Creek Drive.

Chance of flooding, September to November

The three-month chances are the River Forecast Centers’ long-range flood outlook, issued September 15, 2026.

Most recent crests

• October 10, 2024: 16.86 ft
• August 6, 2024: 15.54 ft
• December 18, 2023: 15.28 ft
• March 12, 2022: 15.88 ft
• July 8, 2021: 15.33 ft
• May 31, 2018: 14.69 ft
• September 11, 2017: 29.36 ft
• June 28, 2017: 14.85 ft
• October 8, 2016: 16.51 ft
• September 1, 2015: 14.99 ft

• DownstreamBlack Creek at Middleburg
• Black Creek (in MHHW)
• North Fork Black Creek at Middleburg
• St. Johns River at Shands Bridge (in MHHW)
• Ortega River at Argyle Forest Boulevard
• Alligator Creek at Starke
• Trout Creek Marina
• Julington Creek

Forecasts by the Southeast River Forecast Center. Forecasts are issued as needed during times of high water, but are not routinely available. River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 48 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time.

Stage, flood stages, impacts and crest history from NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service. Streamflow and the daily record from the U.S. Geological Survey.