East Branch of the Ausable River at Au Sable Forks

1. 18.00 ftRecord flooding will occur throughout the Ausable valley with numerous homes and businesses flooded or becoming isolated by high water. Large sections of Routes 9N and 73 will flood and become impassable. Ausable Village may become isolated with large areas of the town flooded, such as Main Street, the Main Street bridge and the Jersey bridge. Safe access to many homes and businesses will be blocked by high water.
2. 15.00 ftSevere flooding will be seen throughout much of the Ausable Valley from Keene to Jay, downstream through Ausable Village and Keeseville. Numerous sections of Routes 9n and 73 will flood with some homes and businesses becoming isolated by high water, similar to the flood of November 1996. In Ausable Village, Grove Road, School Street, Intervale Avenue, and homes in the Jersey area will flood. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant and several homes and businesses along Route 9 will flood.
3. 13.00 ftMajor flooding will occur in many portions of the Ausable Valley. In Ausable Village, homes in the Jersey area and other lowland areas will likely flood. Several feet of water will cover Intervale Avenue, and portions of Grove Road and School Street may experience high water. Sections of Routes 9N and 73 will flood. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant, as well as homes and businesses along Route 9 will likely flood. This stage is equivalent to the FEMA 1 Percent Annual Chance Flood.
4. 11.00 ftMajor flooding will likely occur in portions of the Ausable River valley. In Ausable Village, homes in the Jersey area including Intervale Avenue will flood. Water will cover Route 9N near Stickney Bridge including Clark Lane and Carey Road. Water will approach Route 9N near Stone House Road. In Keeseville, the wastewater treatment plant and businesses along Route 9 may flood. In Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road, Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy field. The Keene business district may also flood.
5. 10.00 ftParkland and adjacent parking lots will flood in Ausable Forks. In Jay, portions of Route 9N near Stickney Bridge will flood. Water will back up onto Clark Lane and Carey Road. Downstream in Keeseville, water will approach businesses along north Ausable Street, as well as the Keeseville wastewater treatment plant. Upstream in Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road and Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy Field.
6. 9.00 ftIn Jay, water will approach Route 9N in the Stickney Bridge area. In Keene, water will cover Hulls Falls Road, and Routes 73 and 9N near Marcy Field.
7. 8.00 ftIn Jay, water will cover Route 9N near Trumbulls Corner. Minor flooding can occur in Keene. Water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field. High water will impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.
8. 7.00 ftMinor flooding can occur in Keene. Water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field. High water will impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.

Chance of flooding, September to November

The three-month chances are the River Forecast Centers’ long-range flood outlook, issued September 21, 2026.

Most recent crests

• March 17, 2025: 7.58 ft
• July 11, 2024: 8.50 ft
• April 13, 2024: 7.71 ft
• December 18, 2023: 11.83 ft
• October 8, 2023: 8.85 ft
• May 1, 2023: 8.36 ft
• April 8, 2022: 7.03 ft
• February 18, 2022: 15.82 ft
• December 25, 2020: 8.73 ft
• August 5, 2020: 7.61 ft

• DownstreamAu Sable River at Au Sable Forks
• White Brook (NY) at White Brook near Wilmington NY
• Little Ausable River at Laphams Mills
• Boquet River at Willsboro
• Salmon River at South Plattsburgh
• Saranac River at Plattsburgh
• Lake Champlain at Plattsburgh Bay Flood Inundation Mapping site
• Lake Champlain at Burlington

Forecasts by the Northeast River Forecast Center. Forecasts are issued routinely year-round. Gauge reading may be affected by ice. Forecast flows are unadjusted for ice.

Stage, flood stages, impacts and crest history from NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service. Streamflow and the daily record from the U.S. Geological Survey.