Mill Bay, Canada

1. Sat2 PM58°6 mph
2. 3 PM58°8 mph
3. 4 PM57°7 mph
4. 5 PM56°6 mph
5. 6 PM55°4 mph
6. 7 PM53°3 mph
7. 8 PM51°3 mph
8. 9 PM50°4 mph
9. 10 PM48°4 mph
10. 11 PM45°5 mph
11. Sun12 AM42°5 mph
12. 1 AM42°6 mph
13. 2 AM43°8 mph
14. 3 AM43°8 mph
15. 4 AM43°9 mph
16. 5 AM43°9 mph
17. 6 AM42°10 mph
18. 7 AM42°10 mph
19. 8 AM43°10 mph
20. 9 AM49°9 mph
21. 10 AM56°11 mph
22. 11 AM59°11 mph
23. 12 PM60°12 mph
24. 1 PM61°12 mph
25. 2 PM62°11 mph
26. 3 PM62°10 mph
27. 4 PM62°10 mph
28. 5 PM62°9 mph
29. 6 PM60°6 mph
30. 7 PM57°4 mph
31. 8 PM54°6 mph
32. 9 PM53°5 mph
33. 10 PM51°4 mph
34. 11 PM50°4 mph
35. Mon12 AM47°4 mph
36. 1 AM46°5 mph
37. 2 AM43°5 mph
38. 3 AM44°6 mph
39. 4 AM45°5 mph
40. 5 AM45°4 mph
41. 6 AM43°4 mph
42. 7 AM42°5 mph
43. 8 AM43°6 mph
44. 9 AM48°4 mph
45. 10 AM55°4 mph
46. 11 AM60°5 mph
47. 12 PM62°6 mph
48. 1 PM64°8 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2658°42°Partly cloudy—wind 8 mph
2. SunSep 2762°43°Fog—wind 12 mph
3. MonSep 2865°54°Fog—0.08 inwind 16 mph
4. TueSep 2962°45°Rain—0.65 inwind 18 mph
5. WedSep 3058°48°Cloudy—wind 4 mph
6. ThuOct 159°47°Partly cloudy—wind 4 mph
7. FriOct 262°49°Partly cloudy—wind 5 mph
8. SatOct 367°51°Mostly clear—wind 4 mph
9. SunOct 469°53°Partly cloudy—wind 3 mph
10. MonOct 562°53°Cloudy—wind 2 mph
11. TueOct 661°54°National Blend31%0.11 inwind 5 mph
12. WedOct 7~63°52°Model mean0.15 in
13. ThuOct 8~60°51°Model mean0.11 in
14. FriOct 9~58°51°Model mean0.09 in
15. SatOct 10~60°48°Model mean
16. SunOct 11~55°48°Model mean

• Feels like57°
• WindNE 6 mph
• Humidity60%
• Dew point44°
• Pressure30.19 inHg
• UV index3 · Moderateclear-sky peak 3 today
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise6:49 PMMoonset 7:11 AM
• Moon phaseFull moon100% lit

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from MET Norway, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

The last night runs past the end of the forecast and is rated on the hours it covers.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 2 PM to 7 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 4 PM to 8 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 10 AM to 3 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 11 AM to 5 PM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 11 AM to 11 PM 12 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 11 AM to 11 PM 12 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index · Solunar tables for Mill Bay, by month

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. This Afternoon58° · ENE 6–7 mph

   Partly cloudy. High near 14°C. Eastnortheast wind 9 to 12 km/h.

2. Tonight42° · W 2–9 mph

   Fog. Low near 6°C. West wind 4 to 15 km/h.

3. Sunday62° · NW 9–12 mph

   Fog. High near 17°C. Northwest wind 14 to 20 km/h.

4. Sunday Night43° · W 4–6 mph

   Fog. Low near 6°C. West wind 6 to 10 km/h.

5. Monday65° · SSW 4–15 mph

   Fog. High near 18°C. Southsouthwest wind 6 to 24 km/h.

6. Monday Night54° · SSE 12–18 mph

   Heavy rain. Low near 12°C. Southsoutheast wind 19 to 29 km/h. Precipitation around 16 mm.

7. Tuesday62° · S 4–9 mph

   Rain. High near 17°C. South wind 6 to 14 km/h. Precipitation around 3 mm.

8. Tuesday Night45° · W 3–4 mph

   Cloudy. Low near 7°C. West wind 5 to 6 km/h.

9. Wednesday58° · ESE 1–2 mph

   Cloudy. High near 14°C. Eastsoutheast wind 2 to 4 km/h.

10. Wednesday Night48° · W 2–2 mph

    Cloudy. Low near 9°C. West wind 3 to 4 km/h.

11. Thursday59° · N 2–4 mph

    Partly cloudy. High near 15°C. North wind 4 to 6 km/h.

12. Thursday Night47° · W 2 mph

    Partly cloudy. Low near 9°C. West wind around 4 km/h.

13. Friday62° · NNW 4–5 mph

    Partly cloudy. High near 17°C. Northnorthwest wind 7 to 8 km/h.

14. Friday Night49° · WSW 2–3 mph

    Cloudy. Low near 9°C. Westsouthwest wind 4 to 5 km/h.

15. Saturday67° · NNW 4 mph

    Mostly clear. High near 19°C. Northnorthwest wind around 7 km/h.

16. Saturday Night51° · WSW 2–3 mph

    Clear. Low near 10°C. Westsouthwest wind 4 to 5 km/h.

17. Sunday69° · NNE 1–2 mph

    Partly cloudy. High near 20°C. Northnortheast wind 2 to 3 km/h.

18. Sunday Night53° · SW 1–2 mph

    Cloudy. Low near 12°C. Southwest wind 1 to 3 km/h.

19. Monday62° · NE 2–2 mph

    Cloudy. High near 17°C. Northeast wind 3 to 4 km/h.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around March 26 and the first fall freeze around November 10: a growing season of about 230 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 21; one spring in ten still has one after April 21.

Climate of Mill Bay: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.