Current weather · Sep 27, 6:05 PM AKDT

64.8790, -148.0560

44°

Mostly CloudyFeels like 44° · Humidity 64%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS Fairbanks, AK · grid 487,121
High
47°
Low
34°
Rain today
5%
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
7:34 PM

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Sun 6 PM44°44°32°64%0%NNE1 mph3 mph55%——
Sun 7 PM41°41°31°67%1%NNW2 mph3 mph70%——
Sun 8 PM39°39°31°71%1%NNW2 mph3 mph70%——
Sun 9 PM37°37°31°78%1%NNW2 mph3 mph70%——
Sun 10 PM36°36°32°84%5%NW2 mph3 mph71%——
Sun 11 PM36°36°32°84%5%NW2 mph3 mph71%——
Mon 12 AM36°36°32°88%5%NW2 mph3 mph71%——
Mon 1 AM35°35°32°90%4%W2 mph3 mph81%——
Mon 2 AM35°35°32°90%4%W2 mph3 mph81%——
Mon 3 AM34°34°32°94%4%W2 mph3 mph81%——
Mon 4 AM33°33°32°96%8%W2 mph3 mph82%——
Mon 5 AM33°33°31°93%8%W2 mph3 mph82%——
Mon 6 AM32°32°31°96%8%W2 mph3 mph82%——
Mon 7 AM32°32°30°94%9%WNW1 mph2 mph84%——
Mon 8 AM32°32°30°95%9%WNW1 mph2 mph84%——
Mon 9 AM32°32°31°97%9%WNW1 mph2 mph84%——
Mon 10 AM32°32°30°92%14%WNW1 mph2 mph92%——
Mon 11 AM34°34°32°90%14%WNW1 mph2 mph92%——
Mon 12 PM36°36°32°86%14%WNW1 mph2 mph92%——
Mon 1 PM38°38°33°81%13%WNW1 mph5 mph85%——
Mon 2 PM38°38°32°77%13%WNW1 mph5 mph85%——
Mon 3 PM39°39°31°75%13%WNW1 mph5 mph85%——
Mon 4 PMSlight chance of light rain and slight chance of light snow39°39°32°77%19%W2 mph6 mph87%——
Mon 5 PMSlight chance of light rain and slight chance of light snow38°38°32°80%19%W2 mph6 mph87%——
Mon 6 PMSlight chance of light rain and slight chance of light snow38°38°33°82%19%W2 mph6 mph87%——
Mon 7 PMSlight chance of light rain and slight chance of light snow37°37°32°84%21%W2 mph5 mph87%——
Mon 8 PMSlight chance of light rain and slight chance of light snow36°36°32°86%21%W2 mph5 mph87%——
Mon 9 PMSlight chance of light rain and slight chance of light snow35°35°33°91%21%W2 mph5 mph87%——
Mon 10 PM35°35°34°94%9%0.00 inW2 mph3 mph77%——
Mon 11 PM36°36°34°92%9%0.00 inW2 mph3 mph77%——
Tue 12 AM36°36°34°95%9%0.00 inW2 mph3 mph77%——
Tue 1 AMChance of light rain and chance of light snow36°33°34°95%35%0.00 inW3 mph5 mph81%——
Tue 2 AMChance of light rain and chance of light snow35°33°34°96%35%0.00 inW3 mph5 mph81%——
Tue 3 AMChance of light rain and chance of light snow34°31°34°99%35%0.00 inW3 mph5 mph81%——
Tue 4 AMChance of light snow34°29°34°100%47%0.01 in0.0 inW5 mph6 mph88%——
Tue 5 AMChance of light snow34°30°33°97%47%0.01 in0.0 inW5 mph6 mph88%——
Tue 6 AMChance of light snow33°28°32°98%47%0.01 in0.0 inW5 mph6 mph88%——
Tue 7 AMChance of light snow33°28°33°100%49%0.01 in0.0 inWSW6 mph6 mph91%——
Tue 8 AMChance of light snow32°27°32°100%49%0.01 in0.0 inWSW6 mph6 mph91%——
Tue 9 AMChance of light snow32°27°32°100%49%0.01 in0.0 inWSW6 mph6 mph91%——
Tue 10 AMChance of light snow32°28°32°100%36%0.00 in0.0 inWSW5 mph8 mph92%——
Tue 11 AMChance of light snow32°28°32°100%36%0.00 in0.0 inWSW5 mph8 mph92%——
Tue 12 PMChance of light snow32°28°32°99%36%0.00 in0.0 inWSW5 mph8 mph92%——
Tue 1 PMChance of light snow32°27°32°98%41%0.00 in0.0 inWSW6 mph12 mph91%——
Tue 2 PMChance of light snow32°27°32°97%41%0.00 in0.0 inWSW6 mph12 mph91%——
Tue 3 PMChance of light snow32°27°32°96%41%0.00 in0.0 inWSW6 mph12 mph91%——
Tue 4 PMLight snow likely32°27°31°95%61%0.00 in0.0 inWSW6 mph13 mph92%——
Tue 5 PMLight snow likely32°27°31°94%61%0.00 in0.0 inWSW6 mph13 mph92%——

The next 16 days

NWS grid published Sep 27, 5:17 PM AKDT to day 8, the mean of GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16
  1. TodaySep 2747°34°Mostly Cloudy5%wind 3 mph
  2. MonSep 2839°32°Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain And Snow21%wind 2 mph
  3. TueSep 2934°27°Light Snow Likely61%0.08 insnow 0.5 inwind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
  4. WedSep 3033°27°Slight Chance Light Snow then Mostly Cloudy40%wind 5 mph
  5. ThuOct 133°27°Slight Chance Light Snow23%wind 5 mph
  6. FriOct 233°26°Slight Chance Light Snow then Mostly Cloudy22%wind 7 mph
  7. SatOct 334°28°Slight Chance Light Snow22%wind 12 mph
  8. SunOct 435°28°Chance Snow Showers26%wind 12 mph
  9. MonOct 5~38°27°Model mean0.01 in
  10. TueOct 6~40°29°Model mean0.02 in
  11. WedOct 7~41°31°Model mean0.01 in
  12. ThuOct 8~42°34°Model mean0.07 in
  13. FriOct 9~42°34°Model mean0.08 in
  14. SatOct 10~48°36°Model mean0.06 in
  15. SunOct 11~47°34°Model mean0.02 in
  16. MonOct 12~40°31°Model mean

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like44°
  • WindCalm
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity64%
  • Dew point32°
  • Pressure—
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility—
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
  • Moonrise6:49 PMMoonset 9:59 AM
  • Moon phaseWaning gibbous98% lit

The models, side by side

GFS Sep 27, 10:00 AM AKDT · GEFS Sep 27, 10:00 AM AKDT · ECMWF Sep 27, 4:00 AM AKDT · ECMWF AI Sep 27, 4:00 AM AKDT

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

14°32°50°MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

DayNWS gridGFSGEFSECMWFECMWF AI
Today Sep 2747° 34°~52° 39°~53° 39°54° 33°~55° 35°
Mon Sep 2839° 32°40° 37°0.09 in41° 36°0.04 in44° 31°0.10 in~44° 35°0.08 in
Tue Sep 2934° 27°0.08 in39° 28°0.05 in38° 30°0.10 in37° 33°0.13 in~36° 34°0.18 in
Wed Sep 3033° 27°36° 26°35° 27°37° 28°0.04 in~35° 31°0.03 in
Thu Oct 133° 27°34° 28°0.07 in35° 28°0.03 in31° 25°0.08 in~31° 27°0.02 in
Fri Oct 233° 26°35° 27°0.01 in35° 27°0.02 in27° 18°0.04 in~32° 23°
Sat Oct 334° 28°34° 26°36° 25°0.03 in~31° 18°~34° 20°
Sun Oct 435° 28°36° 25°38° 27°0.02 in~37° 17°~38° 23°
Mon Oct 5—37° 31°0.02 in38° 28°0.02 in~39° 21°~39° 29°0.01 in
Tue Oct 6—47° 33°39° 29°0.02 in~33° 25°0.07 in~42° 28°
Wed Oct 7—46° 38°~32° 30°~43° 23°~43° 30°0.03 in
Thu Oct 8—~48° 41°0.03 in—~31° 27°0.17 in~48° 35°
Fri Oct 9—~46° 38°0.11 in—~33° 26°~47° 37°0.12 in
Sat Oct 10—~49° 40°0.10 in—~41° 20°~55° 46°0.07 in
Sun Oct 11—~53° 36°0.02 in—~38° 26°0.01 in~52° 39°0.02 in
Mon Oct 12—~40° 31°—~39° 39°0.04 in~36° 36°

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

ECMWF ensemble meteogram for this place: box plots of cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and temperature from the 51 ensemble members for ten days.
Rendered by ECMWF from its 51-member ensemble, in metric units: each box spans the middle half of the members, the whiskers the rest, the line the control run. A forecast, not an observation. © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Fairbanks International Airport (Asos) (PAFA) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Mon Oct 12, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature lean33%warmer 33% · Oct 202640% chance above normal · Oct to Dec-60°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°TodayOct 1Nov 1Dec 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Sep 2746° / 29°72° (2003)3° (1992)no outlookno outlook
Oct 441° / 28°65° (1969)3° (1936)near normal most likely · days 6 to 1033% chance above normal · days 6 to 10
Oct 1134° / 20°65° (1969)-14° (1965)33% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 1829° / 14°61° (1938)-22° (1935)33% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 2526° / 8°52° (1938)-28° (1935)33% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Nov 119° / 4°47° (1951)-35° (1956)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 817° / -1°49° (1997)-42° (1989)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 157° / -8°47° (1949)-41° (1969)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 229° / -7°54° (1936)-45° (1994)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 295° / -11°58° (1934)-54° (1935)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 68° / -8°55° (1934)-59° (1935)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 131° / -17°42° (1943)-57° (1946)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 205° / -14°45° (1999)-56° (1961)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance below normal · Oct to Dec

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hHighhumid
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Common coldtodayLowmild
  • FlutodayLowmild
  • Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayLowmild
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightIdealcool, quiet night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayIdealfine conditions
  • HikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • BikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GolftodayIdealfine conditions
  • FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Boating and paddlingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Beach and pooltodayPoorcool
  • CampingtonightVery goodcold night
  • StargazingtonightPoormostly cloudy

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hIdealclear skies
  • Drivingnext 24 hIdealclear roads

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GardeningtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayVery goodcold
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayGoodlittle sun
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayGoodcold
  • FrosttonightHighcold night

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayLowcool
  • TickstodayModeratewarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayLowcool

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
SundayPoor10:26 PM to 5:01 AM0 of 7None97%4 h2 mph
MondayPoor10:21 PM to 5:05 AM0 of 7None92%7 h5 mph
TuesdayPoor10:17 PM to 5:09 AM0 of 7None86%7 h5 mph
WednesdayPoor10:12 PM to 5:13 AM0 of 7None78%7 h5 mph
ThursdayPoor10:08 PM to 5:17 AM0 of 7None68%7 h6 mph
FridayPoor10:03 PM to 5:20 AM0 of 7None58%6 h9 mph
SaturdayPoor9:59 PM to 5:24 AM0 of 7None47%6 h12 mph
SundayPoor9:55 PM to 5:27 AM0 of 7None37%1 h

The last night runs past the end of the forecast and is rated on the hours it covers.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Sun7:02 AM to 7:21 AM7:21 AM to 8:56 AM6:28 PM to 8:04 PM8:04 PM to 8:22 PM
Mon7:05 AM to 7:24 AM7:24 AM to 9:00 AM6:24 PM to 8:00 PM8:00 PM to 8:19 PM
Tue7:08 AM to 7:27 AM7:27 AM to 9:03 AM6:21 PM to 7:56 PM7:56 PM to 8:15 PM
Wed7:11 AM to 7:30 AM7:30 AM to 9:06 AM6:17 PM to 7:53 PM7:53 PM to 8:11 PM
Thu7:14 AM to 7:33 AM7:33 AM to 9:09 AM6:13 PM to 7:49 PM7:49 PM to 8:08 PM
Fri7:17 AM to 7:36 AM7:36 AM to 9:13 AM6:09 PM to 7:45 PM7:45 PM to 8:04 PM
Sat7:20 AM to 7:39 AM7:39 AM to 9:16 AM6:05 PM to 7:42 PM7:42 PM to 8:01 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 7:51 AM, 93° E
  • SS Sunset 7:34 PM, 267° W
  • MR Moonrise 6:49 PM, 59° ENE
  • MS Moonset 9:59 AM, 295° WNW
  • Waning gibbous, 98% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: good to fly. Next good stretch: Mon 8 AM to 7 PM, 11 hours.

Today: civil twilight 7:02 AM to sunrise 7:51 AM, and sunset 7:34 PM to 8:22 PM (the Air Almanac’s, as Part 107 uses in Alaska). Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Sun6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Tue12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Sun 6 PMGood1140%44°nothing against it
Sun 7 PMCaution2671%41°civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Sun 8 PMCaution2671%39°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 9 PMCaution2671%37°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 10 PMCaution2675%36°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 11 PMCaution2675%36°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 12 AMCaution2675%36°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 1 AMCaution2344%35°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 2 AMCaution2344%35°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 3 AMCaution2344%34°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 4 AMCaution2348%33°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 5 AMCaution2348%33°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 6 AMCaution2348%32°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 7 AMCaution1239%32°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 8 AMGood1239%32°nothing against it
Mon 9 AMGood1239%32°nothing against it
Mon 10 AMGood12314%32°nothing against it
Mon 11 AMGood12314%34°nothing against it
Mon 12 PMGood12314%36°nothing against it
Mon 1 PMGood12513%38°nothing against it
Mon 2 PMGood12513%38°nothing against it
Mon 3 PMGood12513%39°nothing against it
Mon 4 PMGood23719%39°nothing against it
Mon 5 PMGood23719%38°nothing against it

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

No stretch of two hours or more meets the rules with 4 rain-free hours after it in this forecast.

Sun6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Tue12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Wed12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
SundayDry1%0.00 in53%3 mph2 d
MondayDry21%0.00 in75%2 mph1 d
TuesdayShowers possible61%0.08 in93%6 mph
WednesdayDry9%0.00 in78%2 mph5 d
ThursdayDry23%0.00 in81%5 mph4 d
FridayDry17%0.00 in77%6 mph3 d
SaturdayDry20%0.00 in77%9 mph2 d
SundayDry26%0.00 in80%10 mph1 d

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Sunday, rated best.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Sun Best1:11 AM to 3:11 AM1:35 PM to 3:35 PM9:29 AM to 10:29 AM6:19 PM to 7:19 PM 98%7:51 AM, 7:34 PM
Mon Good2:00 AM to 4:00 AM2:26 PM to 4:26 PM11:28 AM to 12:28 PM6:05 PM to 7:05 PM 95%7:54 AM, 7:30 PM
Tue Good2:53 AM to 4:53 AM3:21 PM to 5:21 PM1:45 PM to 2:45 PM5:41 PM to 6:41 PM 89%7:57 AM, 7:26 PM
Wed Poor3:50 AM to 5:50 AM4:20 PM to 6:20 PM 81%8:00 AM, 7:23 PM
Thu Fair4:50 AM to 6:50 AM5:22 PM to 7:22 PM 72%8:03 AM, 7:19 PM
Fri Fair5:53 AM to 7:53 AM6:24 PM to 8:24 PM 62%8:06 AM, 7:16 PM
Sat Fair6:55 AM to 8:55 AM7:25 PM to 9:25 PM 52%8:09 AM, 7:12 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. Tonight31° · 8% · 0 mph

    Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind around 0 mph.

  2. Monday39° · 19% · 0 mph

    A slight chance of rain and snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind around 0 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  3. Monday Night32° · 47% · W 0–5 mph

    A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. West wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

  4. Tuesday34° · 61% · W 5 mph

    Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

  5. Tuesday Night27° · 61% · SW 0–5 mph

    Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southwest wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.

  6. Wednesday33° · 17% · 0 mph

    A slight chance of snow before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  7. Wednesday Night27° · 14% · N 0–5 mph

    Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

  8. Thursday33° · 23% · NW 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.

  9. Thursday Night27° · 22% · NW 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

  10. Friday33° · 17% · NW 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of snow before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.

  11. Friday Night26° · 15% · NW 0–10 mph

    A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

  12. Saturday34° · 20% · NE 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.

  13. Saturday Night28° · 26% · NE 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of snow before 4am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

  14. Sunday35° · 26% · NE 5–10 mph

    A chance of snow showers before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS Fairbanks, AK · issued Sep 27, 3:06 PM AKDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

KEY Messages

Central and Eastern Interior...

A cooling trend will set up across the Interior by the start of the week. By Monday, high are expected to be in the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s and low 30s.

Next chance for precipitation returns early Monday morning, becoming more widespread by the afternoon. The Interior valleys will start off seeing rain, transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight.

Areas above 1200ft will see mostly snow, especially by Monday night and persist through the mid week. Total snow accumulations are expected to be between 1" and 2" with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevation.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Isolated showers continue across the West Coast through Monday morning. A SE moving front will bring more widespread rain/snow showers to the northern half of the Western Interior Monday night into Tuesday.

Snow accumulations are expected to be between 0.5" and 1.5". Lower elevations may continue to see mostly rain, with a slight chance of wet snow as warmer temperatures may still be in place for some locations.

Gusty north winds will continue to increase across the West Coast and Bering Sea through Monday afternoon, decreasing thereafter.

High temperatures Sunday will continue to be in the mid 40s to low 50s. A widespread cooling trend is expected through the mid week with highs down to the mid to low 30s by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Snow showers along the NW Arctic Coast will shift east Sunday night into Monday. Snow accumulations across the Arctic Plains expected to be between 1" and 3" (heavier amounts along higher elevations) through Wednesday afternoon.

Northerly winds increase along the Arctic Coast on Monday with a weak surface low strengthening off the NE Arctic Coast.

High temperatures Sunday will continue to be in the mid 30s to low 40s. A widespread cooling trend is expected through the mid week with highs down to the mid to low 20s by Wednesday.

Synopsis

Isolated rain and snow showers are expected to continue into the start of next week. A cold front will move SE from the Chukchi on Monday. This will allow snow to continue across the North Slope. Some areas across the Interior may see a transition to snow Monday night into Tuesday. With this, higher elevations will see the chance for first snowfall accumulations of the season. Heavier snowfall amounts will be possible along Isabel Pass Monday night through Wednesday night. Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will look to settle across Northern Alaska which could last through most of the week.

Short Term · Through Wednesday

A quieter weather pattern continues over much of Northern Alaska as broad upper-level tough settles in. Satellite imagery from this morning showed a swath of clouds across the western half of the state, while the eastern half remain clear. This is due to weak riding that continues to move north along the Al-Can border. Looking south, a Bering low will continue to weaken as it progresses east across the Alaska Peninsula. Energy from this system will continue to wrap around itself as it moves into the northern Gulf late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

As the low shifts east, colder air brought down from the north will allow the broad troughing to slightly deepen. This will also promote a widespread cooling trend across much of Northern Alaska. This can be seen within the 850mb temperatures as they drop quite a bit Monday into Wednesday. A few embedded shortwave features are expected to remain situated over the Interior on Monday and provide some areas with their first snowfall of the season. Lower elevations will start off seeing mostly rain and transition to a rain/wet snow mix during the overnight hours. Not much is expected in regards to accumulations in these areas. The heaviest snow amounts can be expected along the higher elevations along the White Mountains and Dalton Hwy Summits. In addition, upslope flow will set up along the eastern portion of the Alaska Range with the potential for even heavier snowfall amounts. While the heavier amounts are expected over the peaks, areas along the Richardson Highway could see 3" to 5" through Wednesday night. The north/northwest flow set up over the western half of the state will allow for additional shortwaves to dig south across the Chukchi on Tuesday. Widespread snowfall can be expected to set up across the Arctic Plains ahead of this feature and continue through much of the forecast period. Models are showing the potential for this shortwave to phase with some of the lingering energy across the Interior, forming another closed over the Seward Peninsula by late Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, another shortwave system will move SE from the western Bering on Tuesday and help promote the general troughiness across the state. This will allow for the chillier and showery conditions to continue into the latter half of the week. In addition, a more pronounced trough extending south from the Arctic will progress east from the Chukchi, reaching the NW Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning. With this, another round of snowfall to the north slope and even chillier temperatures down the West Coast.

Long Term · Wednesday Night Through Sunday

The extended begins Wednesday night with general troughing over Alaska, and an arctic low settled north over our state. Through Saturday, the arctic low will send a series of cold fronts throughout Alaska. This will help reinforce cooler temperatures to persist throughout much of northern Alaska throughout the extended period. Specifically, the North Slope will likely see temperatures range between the lower to upper 20s, while south of the Brooks Range, much of the Interior should expect lows in the upper 20s, and highs in the lower 40s. Along with cooler weather, there is possibilities for snow accumulations throughout the week, with most lower lying areas seeing 1 to 2 inches, and higher amounts associated with higher terrains.

Looking further ahead, models are suggesting the potential for a system to move towards the Bering Sea late this week. At this time there is noticeable disagreement on this systems track, which will be a key factor in determining the impacts that this system may bring. As of today, the models suggest a more northward trend of this storm. If this trend proves to be accurate, this would imply the possibility for gusty winds, precipitation, and coastal impacts for our area early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential

No coastal hazard concerns expected.

Fire Weather

Not much expected regarding fire weather concerns. Drier conditions are expected to continue through Sunday night as some slight ridging remains overhead. Temperatures are expected to be cooler as cold 850 temperatures are brought down from the northwesterly flow set up aloft. This will limit the minimum RH values, in comparison to Saturday, with values between 40 and 45 percent. Scattered showers return across the Upper Tanana on monday. Most will be confined to the Fortymile Country with a chance to convert to snow Monday night with the ongoing cooling trend. Not much is expected in regards to accumulations. High temperatures are expected to be in the 50s on Sunday, dropping to the low to mid 40s by the start of the week. These cooler temperatures will remain in place through the end of the week.

Hydrology

No hydro concerns expected.

AFG Watches / Warnings / Advisories

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-806-807- 810-854-856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ805- 855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ860.

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Sun Sep 27No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Mon Sep 28No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Tue Sep 29No risk area
  4. Day 4 · Wed Sep 30No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Thu Oct 1No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Sat Oct 3No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Sun Oct 4No risk area

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Sun Sep 27Under 0.01 in
  2. Day 2 · Mon Sep 28Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Tue Sep 29Under 0.01 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Sep 30–Oct 1Under 0.01 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 2–Oct 3Under 0.01 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · TemperatureNear normal most likelyOct 3–Oct 7
  2. Days 6–10 · Precipitation33% chance above normalOct 3–Oct 7
  3. Days 8–14 · Temperature33% chance above normalOct 5–Oct 11
  4. Days 8–14 · PrecipitationNear normal most likelyOct 5–Oct 11

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Ester

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 24 and the first fall freeze around September 1: a growing season of about 98 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by August 19; one spring in ten still has one after June 4.

Climate of 64.88, -148.06: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 24 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
Wind chill min36°32°26°24°23°20°18°17°
Lightning activity level max11111111
Snowfall total0.0 in0.0 in0.5 in0.1 in0.0 in0.0 in0.0 in
Snow level min4,000 ft2,400 ft900 ft200 ft600 ft400 ft600 ft1,000 ft
Mixing height max1,300 ft1,400 ft2,300 ft1,600 ft1,700 ft2,200 ft1,700 ft700 ft
Transport wind max8 mph7 mph12 mph8 mph8 mph8 mph12 mph12 mph
Twenty-foot wind max3 mph2 mph6 mph5 mph5 mph6 mph10 mph10 mph

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Fairbanks International Airport (Asos) (PAFA) · 7.4 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Sun Sep 2747° / 34°47° / 30°67° (1966)8° (1992)
Mon Sep 2839° / 32°46° / 29°64° (1969)12° (1946)
Tue Sep 2934° / 27°45° / 28°68° (1942)12° (1992)
Wed Sep 3033° / 27°46° / 29°71° (2003)3° (1992)
Thu Oct 133° / 27°47° / 28°72° (2003)14° (1946)
Fri Oct 233° / 26°47° / 29°70° (2003)14° (1974)
Sat Oct 334° / 28°47° / 28°63° (1950)6° (1974)
Sun Oct 435° / 28°46° / 28°61° (2012)7° (1972)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Sun7:02 AM7:51 AM7:34 PM8:22 PM11 h 43 min Waning gibbous · 98% lit
Mon7:05 AM7:54 AM7:30 PM8:19 PM11 h 36 min Waning gibbous · 95% lit
Tue7:08 AM7:57 AM7:26 PM8:15 PM11 h 29 min Waning gibbous · 89% lit
Wed7:11 AM8:00 AM7:23 PM8:11 PM11 h 23 min Waning gibbous · 81% lit
Thu7:14 AM8:03 AM7:19 PM8:08 PM11 h 16 min Waning gibbous · 72% lit
Fri7:17 AM8:06 AM7:16 PM8:04 PM11 h 10 min Waning gibbous · 62% lit
Sat7:20 AM8:09 AM7:12 PM8:01 PM11 h 3 min Last quarter · 52% lit
Sun7:23 AM8:12 AM7:08 PM7:57 PM10 h 56 min Last quarter · 41% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from