48.1200, -96.2050

1. Mon2 PM60°100%8 mph
2. 3 PM60°92%8 mph
3. 4 PM59°85%10 mph
4. 5 PM60°87%9 mph
5. 6 PM62°80%8 mph
6. 7 PM62°79%7 mph
7. 8 PM60°65%7 mph
8. 9 PM60°53%8 mph
9. 10 PM60°39%8 mph
10. 11 PM60°44%8 mph
11. Tue12 AM61°65%8 mph
12. 1 AM61°77%8 mph
13. 2 AM61°83%7 mph
14. 3 AM61°89%9 mph
15. 4 AM61°87%7 mph
16. 5 AM61°79%7 mph
17. 6 AM60°66%8 mph
18. 7 AM60°49%9 mph
19. 8 AM61°47%8 mph
20. 9 AM61°33%7 mph
21. 10 AM62°26%6 mph
22. 11 AM63°18%7 mph
23. 12 PM64°7%8 mph
24. 1 PM64°10%8 mph
25. 2 PM65°2%8 mph
26. 3 PM67°2%8 mph
27. 4 PM67°8 mph
28. 5 PM67°4%7 mph
29. 6 PM66°6 mph
30. 7 PM64°6 mph
31. 8 PM60°7 mph
32. 9 PM59°7 mph
33. 10 PM58°8 mph
34. 11 PM57°8 mph
35. Wed12 AM57°9 mph
36. 1 AM57°9 mph
37. 2 AM57°9 mph
38. 3 AM56°9 mph
39. 4 AM55°9 mph
40. 5 AM55°8 mph
41. 6 AM55°8 mph
42. 7 AM53°7 mph
43. 8 AM55°7 mph
44. 9 AM57°7 mph
45. 10 AM60°8 mph
46. 11 AM63°8 mph
47. 12 PM66°8 mph
48. 1 PM68°8 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2862°50°Showers And Thunderstorms100%0.80 inwind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
2. TueSep 2969°53°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Mostly Cloudy89%0.83 inwind 9 mph · gusts 21 mph
3. WedSep 3071°43°Mostly Sunny0%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
4. ThuOct 160°38°Sunny1%wind 16 mph · gusts 24 mph
5. FriOct 261°43°Mostly Sunny6%wind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
6. SatOct 361°39°Chance Rain Showers33%0.17 inwind 17 mph · gusts 28 mph
7. SunOct 455°35°Mostly Sunny7%wind 14 mph · gusts 23 mph
8. MonOct 559°36°3%wind 16 mph · gusts 25 mph
9. TueOct 663°43°National Blend8%wind 16 mph · gusts 25 mph
10. WedOct 763°42°National Blend7%wind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
11. ThuOct 861°41°National Blend5%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
12. FriOct 9~53°43°Model mean0.01 in
13. SatOct 10~52°36°Model mean
14. SunOct 11~61°41°Model mean
15. MonOct 12~58°45°Model mean
16. TueOct 13~54°38°Model mean

• Feels like60°
• WindESE 8 mphgusts 20 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity90%
• Dew point57°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility—
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise7:37 PMMoonset 9:53 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous95% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 2864°57°NWS grid 62° / 50°rain 100%thunder 39%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
2. TueSep 2968°52°NWS grid 69° / 53°rain 85%thunder 26%0.63 inwind 15 mph · gusts 23 mph
3. WedSep 3070°43°NWS grid 71° / 43°rain 2%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
4. ThuOct 161°38°NWS grid 60° / 38°rain 2%wind 17 mph · gusts 25 mph
5. FriOct 263°44°NWS grid 61° / 43°rain 11%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
6. SatOct 362°41°NWS grid 61° / 39°rain 18%wind 17 mph · gusts 26 mph
7. SunOct 457°37°NWS grid 55° / 35°rain 5%wind 14 mph · gusts 22 mph
8. MonOct 560°43°NWS grid 59° / 36°rain 5%wind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
9. TueOct 663°43°Beyond the NWS gridrain 8%wind 16 mph · gusts 25 mph
10. WedOct 763°42°Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
11. ThuOct 861°41°Beyond the NWS gridrain 5%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Tue Oct 13, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normal

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (chance of rain, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible). Next good stretch: Tue 10 AM to 1 PM, 3 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:50 AM to sunrise 7:20 AM, and sunset 7:10 PM to 7:40 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Wed 11 AM to 2 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 6 PM to Fri 1 AM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 9 AM to 1 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 6 PM to 9 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 6 PM to 10 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Monday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. This Afternoon62° · 100% · ESE 10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. High near 62, with temperatures falling to around 60 in the afternoon. East southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

2. Tonight57° · 89% · S 9 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. Low around 57, with temperatures rising to around 61 overnight. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

3. Tuesday69° · 66% · SW 6–9 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely before noon. Mostly cloudy. High near 69, with temperatures falling to around 67 in the afternoon. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

4. Tuesday Night53° · SW 6–9 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

5. Wednesday71° · WSW 7–13 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. West southwest wind 7 to 13 mph.

6. Wednesday Night43° · 1% · NW 9–13 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph.

7. Thursday60° · 1% · WNW 8–16 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 60. West northwest wind 8 to 16 mph.

8. Thursday Night38° · 1% · W 3–9 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 38. West wind 3 to 9 mph.

9. Friday61° · 6% · SSW 5–10 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

10. Friday Night43° · 15% · SSE 7–12 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South southeast wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

11. Saturday61° · 33% · SSW 13–17 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. South southwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

12. Saturday Night39° · 30% · WNW 8–14 mph

    A chance of rain showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. West northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

13. Sunday55° · 3% · WNW 8–14 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. West northwest wind 8 to 14 mph.

14. Sunday Night35° · 3% · WSW 5–8 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 35. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS43 KFGF 281927
HWOFGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
227 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-054-291930-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Western Walsh-
227 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread rainfall remains forecast this afternoon through
tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches is possible
(20% chance).


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

$$

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-
053-291930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Grand Forks-Griggs-
Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
227 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms remains forecast 
this afternoon through tonight. 

Localized flooding impacts are possible from highest rainfall 
amounts 3 to 6 inches in portions of southeast North Dakota into 
central and southern Red River Valley (20% chance). While
confidence is high in these amounts to occur, uncertainty remains
in exactly where this will occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 14 and the first fall freeze around September 28: a growing season of about 135 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by September 14; one spring in ten still has one after May 29.

Climate of 48.12, -96.20: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.