46.1100, -86.2370

1. Fri7 AM37°4%6 mph
2. 8 AM37°2%7 mph
3. 9 AM46°2%8 mph
4. 10 AM52°3%9 mph
5. 11 AM56°5%10 mph
6. 12 PM58°4%12 mph
7. 1 PM60°1%13 mph
8. 2 PM61°13 mph
9. 3 PM61°13 mph
10. 4 PM61°13 mph
11. 5 PM58°13 mph
12. 6 PM54°10 mph
13. 7 PM51°7 mph
14. 8 PM46°5 mph
15. 9 PM43°3 mph
16. 10 PM40°2 mph
17. 11 PM38°2 mph
18. Sat12 AM37°2 mph
19. 1 AM36°2 mph
20. 2 AM35°1 mph
21. 3 AM34°0 mph
22. 4 AM33°0 mph
23. 5 AM32°0 mph
24. 6 AM29°0 mph
25. 7 AM28°0 mph
26. 8 AM30°1%0 mph
27. 9 AM37°1%1 mph
28. 10 AM47°2 mph
29. 11 AM55°1%5 mph
30. 12 PM58°1%7 mph
31. 1 PM60°1%8 mph
32. 2 PM62°4%9 mph
33. 3 PM62°4%9 mph
34. 4 PM62°17%9 mph
35. 5 PM60°19%9 mph
36. 6 PM58°18%9 mph
37. 7 PM56°16%8 mph
38. 8 PM55°62%8 mph
39. 9 PM53°62%8 mph
40. 10 PM51°62%9 mph
41. 11 PM50°62%9 mph
42. Sun12 AM49°62%9 mph
43. 1 AM49°62%9 mph
44. 2 AM49°77%9 mph
45. 3 AM48°77%9 mph
46. 4 AM47°77%10 mph
47. 5 AM46°77%10 mph
48. 6 AM45°77%10 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodayOct 261°27°Mostly Sunny5%wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
2. SatOct 362°44°Widespread Frost then Slight Chance Light Rain62%0.04 inwind 9 mph · gusts 17 mph
3. SunOct 464°30°Light Rain then Slight Chance Rain Showers77%0.10 inwind 16 mph · gusts 26 mph
4. MonOct 557°30°Sunny3%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
5. TueOct 663°44°Mostly Sunny6%wind 18 mph · gusts 32 mph
6. WedOct 769°38°Partly Sunny11%wind 13 mph · gusts 24 mph
7. ThuOct 867°36°Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers19%wind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
8. FriOct 965°38°17%wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
9. SatOct 1067°43°National Blend13%wind 16 mph · gusts 26 mph
10. SunOct 1166°36°National Blend22%wind 12 mph · gusts 23 mph
11. MonOct 12~60°50°Model mean0.11 in
12. TueOct 13~55°50°Model mean0.57 in
13. WedOct 14~55°44°Model mean0.17 in
14. ThuOct 15~56°48°Model mean0.15 in
15. FriOct 16~60°56°Model mean0.01 in
16. SatOct 17~45°38°Model mean0.09 in

• Feels like32°
• WindWNW 6 mphgusts 15 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity100%
• Dew point37°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise11:05 PMMoonset 3:09 PM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous64% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodayOct 261°29°NWS grid 61° / 27°rain 16%wind 13 mph · gusts 23 mph
2. SatOct 363°45°NWS grid 62° / 44°rain 75%0.10 inwind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
3. SunOct 464°31°NWS grid 64° / 30°rain 68%0.05 inwind 16 mph · gusts 29 mph
4. MonOct 557°30°NWS grid 57° / 30°rain 3%wind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
5. TueOct 663°44°NWS grid 63° / 44°rain 7%wind 18 mph · gusts 32 mph
6. WedOct 769°39°NWS grid 69° / 38°rain 12%wind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
7. ThuOct 867°37°NWS grid 67° / 36°rain 20%wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
8. FriOct 965°38°NWS grid 65° / 38°rain 16%wind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
9. SatOct 1067°43°Beyond the NWS gridrain 13%wind 16 mph · gusts 26 mph
10. SunOct 1166°36°Beyond the NWS gridrain 22%wind 12 mph · gusts 23 mph
11. MonOct 1262°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 25%0.11 inwind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sat Oct 17, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight: 2 dark, clear hours without a bright moon, from 9:00 PM. Rated fair.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Sat 9 AM to 2 PM, 5 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 7:15 AM to sunrise 7:45 AM, and sunset 7:23 PM to 7:53 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 11 AM to 2 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 9 PM to 11 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 9 AM to 11 AM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 5 PM to 9 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 6 PM to 11 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 7 PM to 11 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Wednesday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Today61° · 5% · NW 5–15 mph

   Mostly sunny. High near 61, with temperatures falling to around 58 in the afternoon. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

2. Tonight27° · NW 0–10 mph

   Widespread frost after midnight. Mostly clear. Low around 27, with temperatures rising to around 32 overnight. Northwest wind 0 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

3. Saturday62° · 19% · S 0–10 mph

   Widespread frost before 9am, then a slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. South wind 0 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

4. Saturday Night44° · 77% · S 10 mph

   Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 44. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

5. Sunday64° · 77% · W 10–15 mph

   Rain before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm. Mostly sunny. High near 64, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

6. Sunday Night30° · 1% · NW 5–15 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

7. Monday57° · 3% · NW 5–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 57.

8. Monday Night30° · N 0–10 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 30.

9. Tuesday63° · 1% · S 0–20 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

10. Tuesday Night44° · 7% · SW 10–20 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

11. Wednesday69° · 11% · W 10 mph

    Partly sunny, with a high near 69.

12. Wednesday Night38° · 10% · W 5–10 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

13. Thursday67° · 19% · W 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

14. Thursday Night36° · 19% · W 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 9 and the first fall freeze around October 10: a growing season of about 154 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by September 27; one spring in ten still has one after May 23.

Climate of 46.11, -86.24: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.