44.5270, -72.8160

1. Mon3 AM49°39%23 mph
2. 4 AM49°40%22 mph
3. 5 AM48°41%23 mph
4. 6 AM48°36%22 mph
5. 7 AM47°30%20 mph
6. 8 AM48°24%17 mph
7. 9 AM47°28%15 mph
8. 10 AM49°32%12 mph
9. 11 AM48°36%10 mph
10. 12 PM48°44%9 mph
11. 1 PM47°53%8 mph
12. 2 PM47°61%7 mph
13. 3 PM48°65%8 mph
14. 4 PM47°70%9 mph
15. 5 PM47°74%10 mph
16. 6 PM47°64%10 mph
17. 7 PM48°53%10 mph
18. 8 PM48°43%10 mph
19. 9 PM48°36%9 mph
20. 10 PM48°30%8 mph
21. 11 PM48°23%5 mph
22. Tue12 AM48°19%5 mph
23. 1 AM47°15%5 mph
24. 2 AM48°11%5 mph
25. 3 AM48°9%7 mph
26. 4 AM48°7%8 mph
27. 5 AM47°5%8 mph
28. 6 AM46°3%9 mph
29. 7 AM46°2%10 mph
30. 8 AM46°9 mph
31. 9 AM45°10 mph
32. 10 AM46°10 mph
33. 11 AM46°10 mph
34. 12 PM47°10 mph
35. 1 PM47°10 mph
36. 2 PM48°12 mph
37. 3 PM50°10 mph
38. 4 PM50°9 mph
39. 5 PM50°9 mph
40. 6 PM49°9 mph
41. 7 PM48°8 mph
42. 8 PM48°8 mph
43. 9 PM48°7 mph
44. 10 PM48°6 mph
45. 11 PM47°5 mph
46. Wed12 AM47°3 mph
47. 1 AM46°3 mph
48. 2 AM46°2 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2849°44°Rain Showers Likely74%0.09 inwind 36 mph · gusts 45 mph
2. TueSep 2950°44°Mostly Cloudy19%wind 12 mph
3. WedSep 3059°49°Partly Sunny1%wind 13 mph
4. ThuOct 163°53°Partly Sunny37%wind 22 mph · gusts 30 mph
5. FriOct 256°41°Chance Rain Showers37%wind 22 mph · gusts 30 mph
6. SatOct 350°38°Mostly Sunny18%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
7. SunOct 452°39°Chance Rain Showers39%wind 14 mph
8. MonOct 548°34°39%wind 14 mph · gusts 21 mph
9. TueOct 646°36°National Blend20%0.15 inwind 16 mph
10. WedOct 749°37°National Blend32%0.07 inwind 14 mph
11. ThuOct 8~60°42°Model mean0.12 in
12. FriOct 9~57°47°Model mean0.70 in
13. SatOct 10~54°40°Model mean0.01 in
14. SunOct 11~55°45°Model mean0.21 in
15. MonOct 12~48°40°Model mean0.14 in
16. TueOct 13~46°33°Model mean0.04 in

• Feels like42°
• WindE 23 mphgusts 28 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity83%
• Dew point44°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise7:13 PMMoonset 9:05 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous95% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 2850°46°NWS grid 49° / 44°rain 73%thunder 10%0.04 inwind 17 mph
2. TueSep 2950°46°NWS grid 50° / 44°rain 11%wind 8 mph
3. WedSep 3058°50°NWS grid 59° / 49°rain 1%wind 13 mph
4. ThuOct 163°54°NWS grid 63° / 53°rain 33%wind 24 mph
5. FriOct 257°42°NWS grid 56° / 41°rain 49%0.11 inwind 25 mph
6. SatOct 350°38°NWS grid 50° / 38°rain 20%0.02 inwind 10 mph
7. SunOct 450°39°NWS grid 52° / 39°rain 41%0.22 inwind 15 mph
8. MonOct 547°36°NWS grid 48° / 34°rain 39%0.84 inwind 18 mph
9. TueOct 646°36°Beyond the NWS gridrain 20%0.15 inwind 16 mph
10. WedOct 749°37°Beyond the NWS gridrain 32%0.07 inwind 14 mph
11. ThuOct 848°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 20%wind 14 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Tue Oct 13, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC leans cooler than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, chance of rain, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Tue 7 AM to 6 PM, 11 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:16 AM to sunrise 6:46 AM, and sunset 6:37 PM to 7:07 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Wed 1 PM to 9 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 11 PM to Sun 10 AM 35 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Monday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight47° · 41% · E 23 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. East wind around 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

2. Monday49° · 74% · E 7–22 mph

   Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. East wind 7 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

3. Monday Night44° · 64% · NE 5–10 mph

   Rain showers likely before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

4. Tuesday50° · 3% · N 12 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 12 mph.

5. Tuesday Night44° · N 2–9 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 2 to 9 mph.

6. Wednesday59° · SW 3 mph

   Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Southwest wind around 3 mph.

7. Wednesday Night49° · 2% · S 3–15 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind 3 to 15 mph.

8. Thursday63° · 5% · S 15 mph

   Partly sunny, with a high near 63. South wind around 15 mph.

9. Thursday Night53° · 37% · SW 16–22 mph

   A chance of rain showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 16 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

10. Friday56° · 32% · W 9–15 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. West wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

11. Friday Night41° · 32% · W 6–10 mph

    A chance of rain showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

12. Saturday50° · 12% · NW 8 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Northwest wind around 8 mph.

13. Saturday Night38° · 18% · SW 7 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Southwest wind around 7 mph.

14. Sunday52° · 33% · S 8 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS41 KBTV 280622
HWOBTV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
222 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-290630-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
Eastern Windsor-
222 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central 
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 23 and the first fall freeze around September 30: a growing season of about 130 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by September 16; one spring in ten still has one after June 8.

Climate of 44.53, -72.82: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.