43.8160, -88.3200

1. Thu2 AM63°58%7 mph
2. 3 AM64°65%7 mph
3. 4 AM63°86%6 mph
4. 5 AM63°84%6 mph
5. 6 AM63°90%5 mph
6. 7 AM64°87%3 mph
7. 8 AM64°83%3 mph
8. 9 AM64°83%3 mph
9. 10 AM64°79%5 mph
10. 11 AM65°76%6 mph
11. 12 PM66°49%6 mph
12. 1 PM65°33%7 mph
13. 2 PM67°35%7 mph
14. 3 PM66°31%7 mph
15. 4 PM65°19%8 mph
16. 5 PM65°11%8 mph
17. 6 PM63°7%7 mph
18. 7 PM62°1%7 mph
19. 8 PM60°1%7 mph
20. 9 PM58°7 mph
21. 10 PM57°8 mph
22. 11 PM56°8 mph
23. Fri12 AM54°7 mph
24. 1 AM54°7 mph
25. 2 AM52°7 mph
26. 3 AM51°8 mph
27. 4 AM50°8 mph
28. 5 AM48°9 mph
29. 6 AM47°9 mph
30. 7 AM47°8 mph
31. 8 AM49°9 mph
32. 9 AM52°10 mph
33. 10 AM53°12 mph
34. 11 AM55°12 mph
35. 12 PM57°10 mph
36. 1 PM59°10 mph
37. 2 PM60°10 mph
38. 3 PM61°9 mph
39. 4 PM61°8 mph
40. 5 PM59°7 mph
41. 6 PM57°3 mph
42. 7 PM52°2 mph
43. 8 PM49°1 mph
44. 9 PM47°1 mph
45. 10 PM46°1 mph
46. 11 PM45°1 mph
47. Sat12 AM45°0 mph
48. 1 AM44°0 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodayOct 167°47°Areas Of Fog90%0.69 inwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
2. FriOct 261°39°Sunny0%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
3. SatOct 364°45°Sunny3%wind 10 mph · gusts 16 mph
4. SunOct 466°40°Sunny8%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
5. MonOct 561°39°Sunny0%wind 6 mph
6. TueOct 663°47°Sunny1%wind 14 mph · gusts 22 mph
7. WedOct 768°46°Mostly Sunny10%wind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
8. ThuOct 866°46°2%wind 10 mph · gusts 17 mph
9. FriOct 965°48°National Blend5%wind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
10. SatOct 1066°48°National Blend11%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
11. SunOct 11~67°49°Model mean0.10 in
12. MonOct 12~56°44°Model mean
13. TueOct 13~53°38°Model mean
14. WedOct 14~61°46°Model mean
15. ThuOct 15~55°43°Model mean
16. FriOct 16~43°35°Model mean

• Feels like63°
• WindSW 7 mphgusts 15 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity100%
• Dew point63°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility3 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise9:22 PMMoonset 1:01 PM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous73% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodayOct 168°47°NWS grid 67° / 47°rain 97%thunder 21%0.78 inwind 7 mph · gusts 15 mph
2. FriOct 262°42°NWS grid 61° / 39°rain 1%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
3. SatOct 364°47°NWS grid 64° / 45°rain 9%wind 9 mph · gusts 17 mph
4. SunOct 466°40°NWS grid 66° / 40°rain 6%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
5. MonOct 558°40°NWS grid 61° / 39°rain 0%wind 7 mph
6. TueOct 663°49°NWS grid 63° / 47°rain 8%thunder 16%wind 14 mph · gusts 23 mph
7. WedOct 768°47°NWS grid 68° / 46°rain 12%thunder 13%wind 14 mph · gusts 24 mph
8. ThuOct 865°46°NWS grid 66° / 46°rain 4%wind 9 mph
9. FriOct 965°48°Beyond the NWS gridrain 5%wind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
10. SatOct 1066°48°Beyond the NWS gridrain 11%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
11. SunOct 1162°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 19%wind 14 mph · gusts 22 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Fri Oct 16, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (low cloud limits height (107.51), gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Thu 4 PM to 6 PM, 2 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:21 AM to sunrise 6:51 AM, and sunset 6:34 PM to 7:04 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Fri 12 AM to 2 AM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 3 PM to 7 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 10 AM to 1 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 5 PM to 10 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 5 PM to Mon 2 AM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 10 AM to 6 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 6 PM to 10 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 10 AM to 12 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Wednesday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight63° · 86% · SW 5 mph

   Patchy fog and showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

2. Thursday67° · 90% · NW 5–10 mph

   Areas of fog and showers and thunderstorms before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 67. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

3. Thursday Night47° · 7% · NW 5–10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

4. Friday61° · NW 5–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

5. Friday Night39° · NW 0–5 mph

   Clear, with a low around 39. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.

6. Saturday64° · SE 0–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 64. Southeast wind 0 to 10 mph.

7. Saturday Night45° · 8% · S 5–10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

8. Sunday66° · 8% · W 10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 66. West wind around 10 mph.

9. Sunday Night40° · NW 5–10 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

10. Monday61° · NW 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 61.

11. Monday Night39° · SE 0–5 mph

    Clear, with a low around 39.

12. Tuesday63° · S 5–15 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 63.

13. Tuesday Night47° · 10% · SW 10 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

14. Wednesday68° · 10% · SW 10 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS43 KMKX 010518
HWOMKX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020530-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central 
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog are expected across the area through the early 
morning hours.

Moderate to heavy rain develops early this morning. Isolated 
thunderstorms may occur. Urban and small stream flooding is 
possible. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are possible especially
along and south of the I-94 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, but rainfall reports will 
be appreciated.

$$

LMZ643>646-020530-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from 
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog are expected into early this morning.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Elevated winds and increasing waves may become hazardous to small
craft Tuesday into Tuesday night.

$$

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-020530-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms may occur across the southern half of the
open waters through this morning.

Areas of fog are possible across the lake into midday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 1 and the first fall freeze around October 12: a growing season of about 162 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by September 28; one spring in ten still has one after May 17.

Climate of 43.82, -88.32: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.