43.3430, -95.2080

1. Sat7 PM62°34%10 mph
2. 8 PM62°39%9 mph
3. 9 PM61°44%10 mph
4. 10 PM61°48%10 mph
5. 11 PM61°53%9 mph
6. Sun12 AM60°54%8 mph
7. 1 AM61°56%7 mph
8. 2 AM61°42%6 mph
9. 3 AM61°28%6 mph
10. 4 AM60°34%6 mph
11. 5 AM60°40%5 mph
12. 6 AM60°31%3 mph
13. 7 AM59°25%3 mph
14. 8 AM61°20%3 mph
15. 9 AM62°15%3 mph
16. 10 AM63°10%3 mph
17. 11 AM64°5%5 mph
18. 12 PM66°4%5 mph
19. 1 PM68°4%5 mph
20. 2 PM69°3%6 mph
21. 3 PM69°2%6 mph
22. 4 PM71°2%7 mph
23. 5 PM69°2%6 mph
24. 6 PM69°4%6 mph
25. 7 PM68°7%5 mph
26. 8 PM64°6%5 mph
27. 9 PM63°9%3 mph
28. 10 PM62°8%3 mph
29. 11 PM62°8%3 mph
30. Mon12 AM60°6%3 mph
31. 1 AM60°3 mph
32. 2 AM59°3 mph
33. 3 AM59°1%3 mph
34. 4 AM58°3 mph
35. 5 AM58°3 mph
36. 6 AM57°2%3 mph
37. 7 AM58°3%3 mph
38. 8 AM59°3%5 mph
39. 9 AM60°3%6 mph
40. 10 AM62°3%7 mph
41. 11 AM64°3%9 mph
42. 12 PM65°3%10 mph
43. 1 PM67°10 mph
44. 2 PM68°12 mph
45. 3 PM69°12 mph
46. 4 PM69°12 mph
47. 5 PM69°10 mph
48. 6 PM68°9 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2664°59°Patchy Fog66%0.10 inwind 15 mph · gusts 22 mph
2. SunSep 2771°57°Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy56%0.10 inwind 8 mph
3. MonSep 2870°58°Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy6%wind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
4. TueSep 2967°57°Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms86%0.66 inwind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
5. WedSep 3069°56°Chance Rain Showers38%wind 7 mph
6. ThuOct 167°51°Chance Rain Showers38%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
7. FriOct 264°50°Slight Chance Rain Showers16%wind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
8. SatOct 363°51°Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms16%wind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
9. SunOct 458°45°National Blend18%wind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
10. MonOct 558°49°National Blend10%wind 10 mph
11. TueOct 662°50°National Blend11%0.07 inwind 14 mph · gusts 21 mph
12. WedOct 7~71°52°Model mean
13. ThuOct 8~67°48°Model mean
14. FriOct 9~68°49°Model mean
15. SatOct 10~71°52°Model mean
16. SunOct 11~66°50°Model mean0.07 in

• Feels like62°
• WindSE 10 mphgusts 18 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity97%
• Dew point61°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility2.2 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · set
• Moonrise6:59 PMMoonset 7:09 AM
• Moon phaseFull moon100% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 26—58°NWS grid 64° / 59°rain 63%thunder 23%wind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
2. SunSep 2769°57°NWS grid 71° / 57°rain 34%thunder 17%wind 8 mph
3. MonSep 2870°58°NWS grid 70° / 58°rain 19%thunder 13%wind 12 mph
4. TueSep 2967°57°NWS grid 67° / 57°rain 86%thunder 18%0.77 inwind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
5. WedSep 3069°56°NWS grid 69° / 56°rain 40%0.17 inwind 7 mph
6. ThuOct 167°51°NWS grid 67° / 51°rain 33%0.07 inwind 13 mph · gusts 20 mph
7. FriOct 264°50°NWS grid 64° / 50°rain 18%0.08 inwind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
8. SatOct 363°49°NWS grid 63° / 51°rain 17%thunder 12%0.03 inwind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
9. SunOct 458°45°Beyond the NWS gridrain 18%wind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
10. MonOct 558°49°Beyond the NWS gridrain 10%wind 10 mph
11. TueOct 662°50°Beyond the NWS gridrain 11%0.07 inwind 14 mph · gusts 21 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

The sun is down, so each rating says which span it is for: tomorrow’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51), low cloud limits height (107.51), gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Sun 1 PM to 7 PM, 6 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:43 AM to sunrise 7:13 AM, and sunset 7:11 PM to 7:41 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sun 4 PM to 7 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 6 PM to 8 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 7 PM to 11 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 6 AM to 11 AM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 5 PM to 9 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 11 AM to 4 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Tonight59° · 56% · SE 5–10 mph

   Patchy fog and showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

2. Sunday71° · 31% · ESE 5 mph

   Patchy fog and a chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then areas of fog and a chance of rain showers between 7am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

3. Sunday Night57° · 9% · E 5 mph

   Patchy fog after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind around 5 mph.

4. Monday70° · 3% · SE 5–10 mph

   Patchy fog before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

5. Monday Night58° · 18% · SSE 10 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers between 1am and 4am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

6. Tuesday67° · 86% · S 5–10 mph

   A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 67. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

7. Tuesday Night57° · 70% · SE 5 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

8. Wednesday69° · 38% · ESE 0–5 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

9. Wednesday Night56° · 38% · SSW 5 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

10. Thursday67° · 38% · N 5–15 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

11. Thursday Night51° · 24% · N 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

12. Friday64° · 16% · ENE 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

13. Friday Night50° · 15% · SSE 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

14. Saturday63° · 16% · SW 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS43 KFSD 260921
HWOFSD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
421 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-270930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
421 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central 
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South 
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and 
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers or a very isolated thunderstorm will move east through
midday. Additional showers will develop near and east of I-29 by 
this evening, with scattered non-severe thunderstorms possible in
northwest Iowa.

Areas of dense fog may develop late tonight into early Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive Monday night 
into Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected, but pockets of heavier 
rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 1 and the first fall freeze around October 6: a growing season of about 158 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by September 24; one spring in ten still has one after May 14.

Climate of 43.34, -95.21: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.